Gerd Gigerenzer
speaker
43 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2014
last heard May 2014
Gerd Gigerenzer’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So I'd rather do nothing, stick with it.
The surprising answer is that in this textbook problem, the best choice is to switch.
That's the typical story.
But now the real twist comes.
The Monty Hall problem is about risk.
Everything is known.
And Monty has to follow rules.
In an uncertain world, it's an illusion to think that probability theory will give you the optimal answer.
This illusion is also called the turkey illusion.
So the story is, assume you are a turkey.
It's the first day of your life.
A man is coming and you fear he will kill me, but he feeds you.
Next day, you fear again.
He will kill me, but he feeds you.
Third day, the same thing.
By all standard mathematical models, Bayesian and otherwise, the probability that he will feed you increases every day.
And at day 100, it's higher than any time before.
But it's the day before Thanksgiving, and you're dead meat.
Remember the last financial crisis?
Before the crisis, the certainty that it will go on like this, suggested by the rating agencies and by the bank's calculations, went up and up and up until everything went down.
Showing 21–40 of 43 · page 2 of 3
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