Henrietta Levin

speaker

569 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard May 2026 last heard 6 Aug

Henrietta Levin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 2.

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Pekingology · Avoiding War in the South China Sea · 9 Jul 2026 podcast

If you think about this in contrast to something like Peuan, where there probably are at least more

in there's more intentionality behind each method of coercion that would be used in the military domain.

Whereas if a clock just keeps ticking and gets it wrong at some point in the South China Sea, you could see an escalation spiral that no one really chose, but everyone feels they have to pursue.

And it's of course, when in thinking about how China manages those maybe inadvertent moments of escalation, I would assume that she probably isn't looking to push at least so quickly in the South China Sea that he would risk drawing in the United States or causing a more significant conflict with neighbors.

But at the same time, once an escalation begins, it's not like we should assume she is just looking to get out of it.

He has demonstrated rather ultranationalist proclivities.

And at this point, whether or not those are deeply held personally for him, who knows, he's created an ecosystem where he has to live up to them.

So it it strikes me as

Stressful.

And and I before you even get into the complicated dynamics in other capitals that would be relevant.

Yeah, and in that incident you could it seems almost more likely than not that someone would have died.

In a way, it feels quite lucky that the casualties were as limited as they were given the

Aggression but also just chaos of that kind of interaction.

The Southeast Asian countries claimants are improving their own maritime capabilities.

So in your view, that allows them to contribute to at least the achievement of a modest stalemate.

But how would you think about shaping China's behavior?

So not just matching it, but is there any way that either regional or international players can actually affect Beijing's own calculus about how much aggression it really wants to bring to bear in pursuing these claims?

But as a matter of risk, right?

Thinking about if we want to encourage China to on a scale of one to ten, maybe instead of accepting a level eight of risk, what if it was seven?

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