Henrietta Levin

speaker

569 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard May 2026 last heard 6 Aug

Henrietta Levin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 2.

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Pekingology · Avoiding War in the South China Sea · 9 Jul 2026 podcast

So maybe right now it's more about giving the rest of the world an easier case for supporting the Philippines when they're under pressure from China in the South China Sea, which I mean is not a given, right?

It's not convenient to oppose China on anything, let alone on behalf of if you're talking about Europe, a country very far away, and the clear basis.

of the Philippines position in international law makes that coalition stronger.

But maybe over time, you potentially do see more or some effect in China's own calculation.

And the US only endorsed the tribunal ruling in twenty twenty anyway.

So it seems like the South China Sea is subject to at least two different sets of rules.

Even if both are observed rather imperfectly, you have UNCLOS, the international law, peace, which is about universality, et cetera.

The arbitral tribunal would fall into this category.

And then secondly, you have the 2002 declaration on conduct, which

is a negotiated non-binding agreement between China and ASEAN that's really about maintaining the status quo, more or less.

So how do

First of all, would you agree with that?

And how do these frameworks shape China's behavior and what do they mean for the overall picture in the South China Sea?

And how do you see adherence over time to really any set of rules in such a complicated environment?

How does the South China Sea fit into China's broader plans for its maritime periphery, including if we're looking at the waters of the East China Sea, which separates China from Japan, as well as the Taiwan Strait, how does all of this fit together?

Looking ahead, do you expect the effects of climate change will have an impact on these conflicts in the South China Sea?

And do you think the set of risks associated with climate change are something that China is anticipating and planning for in its own South China Sea posture?

How much ocean rise do we need for the South China Sea to be solved?

But before you get to less conflict, you would get to more conflict.

Like along the path of scarcity.

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