James Deardorff
speaker
224 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Feb 2022
last heard Oct 2022
James Deardorff’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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We're just saying these are these are some of the factors that are likely to
to be associated with increased um risk of mortality and um
maybe helpful for for basing these predictions.
Yeah, I mean I think it's there's a few different ways that you can measure model performance and um I don't need to get into much of the details.
A lot of it's related to
Uh the two main ones are discrimination and calibration and essentially just how closely the model's predicted event probability matches the observed probability and whether or not you can kind of correctly identify those who do and do not die during follow-up.
Um and so the the model was was pretty good compared to to previous ones.
Um
The we calculated something called the integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and it was zero point seven five, which is
a a pretty reasonable um metric.
Then on calibration the the observed probabilities seem to align um fairly well with the predict model's predicted probabilities.
So
Um we we felt um
Pretty good that our model did a a a pretty good job at predicting mortality from one to ten years for these older adults.
And we also used uh another cohort um to uh validate the model just to make sure it it also applied to other individuals.
And that that seemed to perform pretty well.
Yeah, I think I would echo the same kind of comments and yeah, I think
In the clinic, really as clinicians, we should be empowered to to ask some of those questions, like how much do you want to know about the likely course of this illness?
Um, because as as say was saying earlier, there's there's a really wide range in terms of
Um what people want to know, but and and how comfortable they are asking and so
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