New Prognostic Models for Older Adults: Alex Lee, James Deardorff, Sei Lee
episode
GeriPal - A Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine Podcast
47 min
5 speakers
8 chapters
transcribed 3 days ago
Transcript
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Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
What is the purpose of discussing prognostic models for older adults?
The JerryPoL Podcast is supported by listeners like you, who've either spread the word on social media, left reviews on podcasting apps, or have clicked on our donate button on the JerryPAL website so we can continue to fund each one of these episodes. Welcome to the Jerry Powell podcast. This is Eric Wadera. This
is Alex Smith.
And Alex, we got a full house today.
We have a full house today, and we're delighted to welcome Alex Lee to the podcast. She's an epidemiologist and assistant professor of medicine in the UCSF division of geriatrics. Welcome to the Jerry Powell podcast, Alex.
Thank you. Happy to be here.
And we're delighted to welcome back James Dierdorf, who is a geriatrician and uh research fellow in the UCSF division of geriatrics. Welcome back to JerryPal, James.
For having me.
And we're delighted to welcome back Say Lee, who is a geriatrician and palliative care doc and is professor of medicine in the UCSF Division of Geriatrics. Welcome back, Say.
Howdy. So we're gonna be talking about prognostication and prognostic indices. Um, but before we jump into that topic. James, I think you have a song request.
Yes, I do. I have um requests for Forever Young by Alpaville.
Uh I love this. I actually just went to uh New Order and Pet Shop Boys. So the fact that you're bringing up Synth Pop um, you know, warms my heart.
Were you alive when this song came out?
Definitely alive in the nineteen eighties. Um But uh yes, you sang uh Forever Young by Bob Dylan around three years ago, and then Alf uh then Eric. uh jokingly started singing this song and so now it's about time to fulfill Eric's request.
Say, do you have any comment?
Oh. Uh this is uh I was thinking that this shows James is um uh a true uh uh older uh soul at heart, even though chronologically he may be a lot younger than me. Uh because uh uh this song is near and dear to my heart because this was my uh first slow dance uh uh when I was in I think it was ninth grade. It was kind of the junior high party. And so this is a song that is kind of burned into my brain.
Yeah, this is this is definitely if if you grew up in the eighties, this is the slow dancing song. Alex, give us a little bit. Here we go. There
is no guitar in the Alphaville version. That's what I no guitar at all. So this is my rendition. Uh with generous support from people who've covered it on YouTube.
It is also very high, so I am very curious to see how you're going to hit the notes.
Let's dance in style, let's dance for a while. Heaven can wait, we're only watching the skies. Hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. Are you gonna drop the bomb or not? Let us die young or let us live forever. We don't have the power, but we'll never say never. Sittin in a sandpit, life is a short trip. The music's for the sad man. Can you imagine when this race is won? To turn our golden faces into the sun? Praising our leaders, we're getting in tune. Music's played by the madman. Forever young, I want to be forever young. Do you really want to live forever? Forever. And ever, forever young, I want to be forever young. Do you really want to live forever? Forever young.
That was awesome, Alex. Well done. James, why'd you pick this song?
Um, well I think we'll be today we'll be talking about how it might not be possible to live forever. Um and I mean also it was German day in Golden Gate Park yesterday. So Oh it was nineteen eighties German synth pop sounds great.
Well, I think uh, you know, uh going back, I I doubt that me and say while we were slow dancing well, me and say weren't slow dancing together, but You know, the fascinating thing about uh German synthpop in the eighties, uh, like we dance it, but it's really about nuclear annihilation.
Why did James request the song “Forever Young” and how does it lead into the conversation?
Like Forever Young is about the prospect of dying in a nuclear Armageddon, uh, which is like ninety-nine lift balloons.
Oh, that's what it's about? Read the
lyrics.
Oh, well here's some from from the end. We're gonna sing the second verses and it's so hard to get old without a cause. I don't wanna perish like a fading horse. One wonders if there is some translation issues from the original German
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the purpose of discussing prognostic models for older adults?
0:01–5:07
2
Why did James request the song “Forever Young” and how does it lead into the conversation?
5:07–8:38
3
How do the guests define the importance of prognosis in caring for older adults?
8:38–17:57
4
What is the concept of “time‑to‑benefit” and why does it matter for clinical decisions?
17:57–24:04
5
How does the ePrognosis website make the new models accessible to clinicians?
24:04–29:07
6
What metrics (AUC, calibration) are used to evaluate the new mortality and disability models?
29:07–34:55
7
Why do the authors include disability and mobility outcomes alongside mortality?
34:55–41:30
8
How can clinicians practically apply these prognostic indices in shared decision‑making?
41:30–47:20
Speakers
5 identifiedMore from GeriPal - A Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine Podcast
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