80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
It could help a bit, but you're still in a pretty bad situation there because you have myrobacteria in the environment.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
Pretty much impossible to get rid of them completely.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
And so you have this transmission route from the environment to multicellular species.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
I do think it's important to do things now.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
And I think that comes from the fact that there's kind of an asymmetry here where we can pause on work towards making mirror life.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
And if we learn more, we can always unpause and continue to do that work.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
if we've already done the enabling work to making mirror life and we learn that it is in fact really dangerous, we can't undo that work.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
That knowledge is already out there.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
And so I think it's much more prudent to take action now and then undo it if we learn something else.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
But I also think
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
There is, in fact, a lot of evidence already that this is a problem.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
The technical report, which is this 200-page document that many of the top scientists contributed to, goes through all of the evidence that's available.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
Now, most of it wasn't generated specifically trying to assess the risks of mirror life, but it was done, and we can use that evidence to think about the risks.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
So there are more experiments that could be done, but there's actually a lot of literature already that we're drawing on to come to these conclusions.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
One thing I want to say upfront, though, is that because with myrobacteria, we're not just talking about a single species, we're talking about a whole class of organisms that could include many different species, kind of like all viruses or something.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
It's very difficult to do experiments that would let us rule out the risk.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
We can do experiments that would help us to learn more, might be helpful for thinking through countermeasures and things like that.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
But I'm not optimistic that in the near term,
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
there's a small number of experiments that we could do that would shift the risk-benefit balance into the other direction.
80,000 Hours Podcast
Why I quit everything to work on a biothreat nobody had heard of | James Smith, Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund
Yeah, I mean, I think now no one, no well-meaning scientist wants to do this, but there were reasons that people wanted to do it before.