Jeff Smith
speaker
52 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2025
last heard May 2025
Jeff Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Weißt du, diese sind keine guten Charaktere hier. Und vielleicht müssen wir uns mit der Sowjetunion verbinden, damit wir irgendeinen Art von Unterstützung haben, weil wir nicht wissen, ob wir gegen China und Pakistan in irgendeinem Zeitpunkt in die Waffe gehen müssen. Also haben sie fast diese Partnerschaft mit der Sowjetunion geformt.
by necessity, because they felt like they were surrounded and the United States had partnered up with the bad guys. In hindsight, it's kind of understandable to see why they might have felt that way. And it wasn't until the collapse of the Soviet Union and eventually 9-11 that dass die Cold War-Politik zerstört wurde und wir die Region wieder neu betrachten konnten.
Wir merkten, dass wir viel mit Indien zusammen haben und wir viele gemeinsame strategische Interessen haben. Pakistan ist auf der anderen Seite ein sehr problematischer Partner. Natürlich mussten wir nach 9-11 mit ihnen verbinden, weil wir in Afghanistan waren und wir Nutzungsrouten in das Land brauchten.
But the longer that war went on, the more we realized that these guys are actually playing a double game and on one hand helping us and on the other hand giving money and arms and support to the Taliban and the guys that are taking shots at our soldiers.
I don't know about hard evidence linking it to the Pakistani government, but they've, I think, done a reasonable job linking it to existing terrorist groups that operate in Pakistan that we know have historically received support from the Pakistani government.
Und in der Tat hat das pakistanische Regierungsverband sich keine Fähigkeiten gemacht, weil kurz nach dem ersten indischen Konterstrahl, der ein paar Terroristen-Training-Kampfe geöffnet hat, gab es einen Feierabend für einen dieser verletzten Terroristen. Und am Feierabend hattest du Terroristen, die auf der US-Terroristen-Warteliste waren.
einen Sermon zu geben, neben den pakistanischen Militärofficern und den pakistanischen Intelligenz-Officern, die den toten Terroristen beurteilen.
Yeah, exactly. You don't need to be an intelligence officer yourself to draw some of these connections. And you don't need to be an analyst to look at historical patterns and say, okay, of the last hundred terrorist attacks in Kashmir... 100 von ihnen wurden zurückgeleitet zu Gruppen mit Linken zur pakistanischen Militär- und Intelligenz-Service.
Also, was sind die Chancen, dass dieser auch ein Produkt des selben Militär- und Intelligenz-Komplexes war?
Well, I was hoping, frankly, that it would end after the first exchange and so We had a similar situation in 2016 and again in 2019 where, especially in 2019 bears the most resemblance here, where there was a terrorist attack in Kashmir, India felt compelled to respond, launched some strikes inside Pakistan, sort of minimal actual damage or casualties, but enough to say
to its own people that we gave a forceful response. In fact, we set a new precedent in 2019 by not just striking targets in Kashmir, but going beyond this disputed territory and actually striking terrorist targets in Pakistan proper, in the Pakistani homeland. So they set that new precedent in 2019.
Then we assumed after this terrorist attack, they were going to have to escalate that even further, which they did. So this time they struck targets in Kashmir, but they also went into the Pakistani heartland. And this time even further into the Pakistani heartland to prove a point. The hope was that Pakistan could...
Either claim victory by saying that maybe we downed an Indian aircraft and there's some evidence to suggest that one of their French aircraft was downed, although the pilot may well have ejected. But maybe one or up to three Indian aircraft were downed. Maybe Pakistan lobs some missiles back into Kashmir at a near Indian army base, but they don't hit anybody.
And then both sides can claim victory to their respective publics and go home. That's essentially what happened in 2019. That's what most of us thought would hopefully happen in this case. But both sides seem to be choosing escalation. I think Pakistan has had an off-ramp since the first exchange, but it chose not to take it. And it chose to respond with drone strikes on Indian military targets.
That was one thing that the Indians in their first wave of attacks sie haben keine pakistanische Militär- oder zivilisierte Infrastruktur getarget, die sie beurteilen. Sie haben nur diese Camps getroffen.
Aber in Pakistans ersten Rückflug haben sie indische Militär-Fazilitäten getarget, die Indien ermutigt haben zu sagen, okay, jetzt steigst du den Anteil und wir kommen nach deinen Militär-Fazilitäten und wir werden in der Tat einige Drohnen in deine Städte schicken. And now Pakistan is responding with its own wave of drones, hundreds in the last volley across the line into multiple Indian targets.
And so unfortunately, the two sides are still climbing the escalation ladder. And, you know, I think both sides have an interest in climbing off, but you never know when that and who's going to take the first step off the ladder.
Yeah, it's very possible. They've got an army chief and you know in Pakistan the real power lies with the military. Pakistani army essentially controls the country. You know, if there's a prime minister that's getting out of line that they don't like, he's arrested and thrown in jail and it's happened. Frequently.
In fact, it's usually the Pakistani military picking who's going to be next prime minister. And then it's just a question of how long it takes before he pisses the military off and gets thrown in jail and they decide they want to go with someone else. So it's really the army chief now who's actually been somewhat vulnerable within Pakistan. There's been a lot of discontent with his leadership.
He also is seen as a particularly religious person who frames the conflict with India in religious and even messianic terms. So that's probably not helping the situation.
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