Joshua Achiam

speaker

232 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 4 Aug

Joshua Achiam’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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The a16z Show · OpenAI's Joshua Achiam: Did We Already Reach AGI? · 4 Aug 2026 podcast

If you have AlphaGo on both sides of the game board and you have one version of AlphaGo that's thinking like 40 plies ahead and one version that's thinking 30 plies ahead, the 40-ply-ahead move thinker is going to win.

I think the dynamics of cyber in the long term might have something of this flavor, where you've got competing AIs on either side of a cyber offense or defense problem, and compute is being allocated to them to figure out how to break the other and how to control the other's resources.

And whoever starts with an awful lot more compute on their side or is able to leverage less compute but more effectively for exploring the tree of possible attacks will wind up winning.

And

That means that the offense-defense dynamics for cyber in the long term maybe favor certain types of threat actors over others who are able to marshal large amounts of compute towards their purposes.

I think that might be right.

I think that the model will still matter a lot.

So I have like a weird and kind of counter consensus guess about something in the shape of the future on model quality.

And I'll probably write this up at some point, but...

Please.

I think people expect that there's no ceiling for the amount of intelligence that you could have in a model.

And they think of RSI, recursive self-improvement, as this loop that's going to happen at some point or another, whether it's across the whole economy or in a particular model and lab.

RSI starts happening and model intelligence takes off and it goes to the moon.

And they don't see a ceiling.

I think...

I think kind of on like physical grounds, there's got to be a maximum amount of computation that you can have per unit volume and energy in the physical universe, right?

And so that sort of implies that there's like a maximum amount of intelligence per unit volume and unit of energy.

If that's the case, eventually...

seeing how fast AI model capabilities are increasing right now, eventually everyone hits that saturation point and everyone's got roughly equivalently capable models from a raw intelligence perspective.

There might still be some actors who lag and who have a previous generation model, but like eventually the stuff diffuses.

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