Joshua Achiam

speaker

232 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 4 Aug

Joshua Achiam’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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The a16z Show · OpenAI's Joshua Achiam: Did We Already Reach AGI? · 4 Aug 2026 podcast

The open source frontier lags the closed source frontier by some number of months, but the fact that it's months is crazy.

So...

Eventually, everyone is probably working with equally maximally capable models.

And then I think it's the amount of compute that you're able to throw at a problem that determines who wins.

oh, I would love to model this mathematically.

This is the kind of thing where my instinct is like, yeah, I can't really mount an argument in one direction or another to say how many orders of magnitude there might be between here and maximum.

But it's a modeling problem, and it might be a tractable modeling problem.

And actually, if you think about what would be most valuable to the world as a whole right now to forecast how the next 10, 20, 30 years are going to go, if we have the ability to model something like that, if we could put numbers on it and make a principled guess that says, well,

We won't hit the saturation point for intelligence, assuming, you know, this set of conditions on acceleration for five years or 10 years or more.

I think it'll be more than five or 10 years.

Maybe, you know.

Weird and highly, probably more than five or 10, but like weird and highly exotic things I think are happening in the near term.

Part of my guess is that modern AI models are...

very good at accelerating other fields of science.

And this probably hasn't been fully priced yet.

You know, we're seeing the wave of results in AI for math, which are very exciting, like cracking through unsolved conjectures that have been open for decades.

Finally.

Yeah, yeah, it's great, right?

And probably not long after this, we'll wind up unlocking the other fields of science that you can run sufficiently faithful simulations for in the amount of compute that we have.

And there are some fields of science where maybe this won't be easy.

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