Mark Halperin

But it's a must win for the Democrats.

All six of the races we've just discussed are must wins for Democrats.

They cannot win the majority without sweeping the three where they're on defense, Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia, and the three where they're trying to take away seats from Republicans, North Carolina.

I said I said for New Hampshire.

So once again, the three were Democrats playing defense, New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia.

And then the ones where Democrats are trying to take Republican seats, North Carolina, Maine and Ohio.

OK, so that's a frame there.

They got to win all six.

And I've run through them.

I hope has made it clear they're not they're not the favorite to win in.

They're not the absolute favorite to win in any of the six.

I'd say right now, based on my reporting, favored in North Carolina.

Favored in Michigan, depending on who the nominee is, maybe.

Favored in Georgia, because Ossoff's done a good job.

But Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire...

I don't know that my reporting suggests the Democrats are the favorite in any of them.

Too soon to say, toss up, whatever you want to say about them.

But that's a tall order where three edges, three toss-ups, got to win all six.

Got to win all six if they want the majority.

That alone should tell you why I believe a lot of analysts are overstating the Democrats' chances of winning the majority.