Mark Halperin

But remember the math.

If they sweep all six of those, all six, they still have to win one more.

And this is where my reporting got super interesting, because there are basically three states that are candidates for that so-called fourth seat, that essential fourth opportunity, run the table on the six, and then win one more.

And there are three candidates for that possibility, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa.

I talked to so many smart people about this.

And what's funny is I probably had a third, a third, a third for what people said was the most likely.

And these are very smart people, very knowledgeable, access to data, understand the history, understand the electoral politics unique to each individual state.

And it's funny because I'd say to a source, if I said to a source, whether it's a Democrat or Republican, they'd say, I think Iowa's the most likely fourth.

And I'd say, tell me why?

They'd tell me why.

And then I'd take that logic to other sources, and no, no chance.

My point is that a lot of sources, need to be real specific about this, a lot of my sources look at the next three.

Again, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas.

And it's not, they won't even rank them.

They won't even say, well, this is most likely, second most likely.

A lot of my sources rule out

one or two and some will have three uh for chances of democrats winning republicans and democrats right uh some of them feel very strongly that there's one so but they don't agree on which the one is so i started out thinking iowa was the one i'm very skeptical that democrats can win a senate seat in texas very skeptical

But I thought Iowa might be the answer, and we'll talk about Iowa in a minute.

But as I talk to people about Iowa, people are skeptical.

A lot of, you know, two thirds of my source is basically skeptical that Iowa is the answer for the Democrats.