Mary Daly

speaker

1,237 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Dec 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Mary Daly’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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So then you go back, leave the interest rate where it is, because inflation is still printing above target, and you have some more time.

But the first labor market report we get has a bit of a tick up in unemployment.

And you get those jobs numbers.

I will say maybe because your listeners would be interested in it, it's not a good time to look at levels.

It's really not a good time to look at employment rate.

I mean I'm you know, I'm the I'm not employment rate, but employment level.

Employment level.

Like how much job growth would do we have?

Because we've had this very large swing in how many immigrants are in the labor force.

The labor force went from people I'd estimate at one fifty is the trend.

Growth we need to have so that unemployment doesn't rise.

Now it's in the seventies, maybe the sixties.

That's a big change.

So I look at rates, unemployment rate, job finding rate, quit rate, all right.

Yeah, this is what Powell said

Yeah, look at the you look at rates and the unemployment rate is a good thing to look at, but it will lag deterioration in the labor market.

So you have to look at those other ones as well.

So I'd look at initial claims for unemployment insurance because people have to go in and file, it's a good administrative record.

And then I look at quits rates, job finding rates, those types of things.

And there I didn't see signs of weakness.

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