Matt Clifford
speaker
475 appearances
20 recordings
6 series
first heard Jan 2026
last heard 21 Aug
Matt Clifford’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 20 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 8.
Appearances
As you say...
Everything we know about AI progress to date suggests that that won't be true for very long.
What's your current take?
It won't be true for very long that a tiny handful of companies have models that capable.
In somewhere between zero and 12 months, I think we can expect, but I'd love you to push back if you don't agree, an open source equivalent capability that's likely from China, but plausibly somewhere else.
One, do you think that's true?
And two, given what you said about attackers only have to get lucky once, defenders have to get lucky every time, what do you expect the real world consequences of that to look like, say, a year out?
Well, let's up the ante a little bit on that.
Oh, we're going to up the ante.
Well, so you recently wrote what I think is a brilliant essay that everyone should read on this idea of recursive self-improvement.
So you'll finesse it better than this, but effectively, AI either can improve itself and therefore you could get some sort of intelligence explosion.
We can get into whether that's the right way to
Why would it explode?
So effectively right now, AI progress is bottlenecked on Jack's very smart colleagues and their counterparts.
And they need to keep coming up with good ideas and they need to keep improving the machine.
Jack's written a great essay about the timelines to a machine improving itself, which would remove at least one bottleneck in that process.
Yes.
And so this, to Jack's, I think, really productive analogy of we're building power plants that spit out nuclear bombs, I think you can up the ante and say that is the next level of that.
I suppose some people would say, well, Rory said, we want to make a choice.
There's regulation.
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