Michael Shermer
speaker
4,120 appearances
2 recordings
2 series
first heard Feb 2026
last heard 9 Jul
Michael Shermer’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So you have this like it's kind of a tapestry of like good evidence.
All right.
So you're picking you're picking the unusual anomalies that happen.
So what's so this is what's called base rate neglect in Bayesian reasoning.
What's the base rate of weird anomalies that happen at all nuclear sites everywhere in the world for the last 50 years?
Does anybody keep track of this?
Like most nights, nothing happens.
Nobody sees anything.
365 nights a year, maybe one night a year, somebody sees something weird.
We write books about the weird stuff.
Why is it, if that was true, what else would be true?
Why are the aliens or whoever not harassing nuclear sites and military sites?
Most of the time, most of the time, nothing happens at these sites.
How come they're not harassing the Russians?
Or maybe they are.
Maybe you have some cases of, you know, Russian sites like this.
So in other words, 167 sounds impressive, but compared to what?
How unusual is that really?
I mean, if you took any place anywhere where there's a lot of people and cameras and people paying attention because this is an important site, there's more observations.
I'll give you an analogy.
Showing 301–320 of 4,120 · page 16 of 206
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