Nate Silver

speaker

1,377 appearances 5 recordings 5 series first heard Feb 2025 last heard 29 Jun

Nate Silver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.

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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028 · 29 Jun 2026 podcast

Yeah.

So I'd say I think there's no evidence of fraud is the short summary version.

The mistake that can be made is to assume that each ballot comes in independently when there are systematic differences between groups and when they tend to cast their ballots.

So Democrats have long been encouraged to vote by mail.

Actually, it used to be more of a Republican thing, but under Trump, who discouraged mail voting in 2016 and 2020 and 2024 to some extent, that shifted.

So look, I think California's system...

is completely unacceptable.

I've done some consulting work on the Indian election, where you literally have polling stations in the Himalayas, and they actually stagger their elections.

But once election day happens, they count their vote within 24 hours.

I think it's ridiculous and very failed state that California takes longer than that.

But if you have one party who systematically tends to vote later, also Democrats in both the LA race and the governorship had more of a choice to make

uh you know it wasn't clear you know for a while it looked like eric swalwell was gonna was gonna win and then katie porter and then and then and then you know basera finally emerges basera like look my dad is from la i spent a lot of time in california and i am all on board with the criticisms of how the state is being governed at least in parts of the state i was in um

San Diego for new years and beautiful time of year to be in San Diego.

And like, you can like literally run on the sand and the beach and everyone's kind of like hot and you have good fish tacos and everything else like that.

I kind of understood the California of like my youth or my dad's youth or whatever else and understand the appeal of the state.

And I understand why LA and SF, I think LA in particular kind of never really recovered from the pandemic.

We can talk about that.

At the same time, it's a very partisan state.

We have very partisan Democrats like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom who emerged from the state.

We saw in the redistricting referendum, I guess it was in 2025, how you can debate whether it's a good idea or not.

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