Phil Suttle
speaker
557 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard Jul 2025
Phil Suttle’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Until we reform that, I think we're on a very bad trajectory.
I think it's more a case more of the same would be my gu I think the problem she faces is she's inheriting a cyclical environment that is sort of very stretched.
So in other words, we got away with not having a downturn when the Fed raised rates.
Now the Fed's easing them.
Uh inflation will probably sort of level off around two, two and a half, and maybe in the twenty six, twenty seven it'll it'll begin to reaccelerate.
So the Fed's gonna have to think about
Certainly cutting the easing cycle, you know, around short around three f in the in the sort of three to four percent range would be my view for where the Fed troughs out on rates.
Um so it's sort of you know, it's kinda like she's almost like stuck against a slow moving ceiling.
That's gonna be her dilemma.
No, I I th I think a lot of it, I mean, ironically, and I think Australia and New Zealand are a great illustration of this, a lot of it had to do with the degree to which central banks were sort of hawkish or dubbish as they as they went into the tightening cycle.
And I I guess I've I've sort of always been characterizing through the last few years Australia and New Zealand as the sort of hare and the tortoise.
So, you know, New Zealand's the hare and and and Australia
With due respect to the RBA, the tortoise on monetary policy.
So, you know, New Zealand really was aggressive as it hiked, and Frankly remained too aggressive for too long.
I mean, I there's some weird things that went on in New Zealand surrounding the way that the central bank and the government
sort of initially, you know, I th I think of Adrian Orra's very, you know, very pally with the Labour government and then falling out very dramatically with the the new Conservative government.
And so that led to a weird sort of environment where the RBNZ was almost too deliberately too tight early on in the Conservative government and kept policy too too too high for too long and is now having to compensate for that.
Whereas the RBA
I think has sort of in some sense been a much less political institution, just been a little bit been a little bit more than a little bit.
In a long time.
Showing 461–480 of 557 · page 24 of 28
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