Phil Suttle
speaker
557 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard Jul 2025
Phil Suttle’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
I think.
Yeah, he's I think he
Well actually no, that's him disagreeing.
He's a big um No, so the RBA has been a little bit more uh uh stable here in its in its behavior.
Um and and and and I think a big part of that was the sort of perception that the uh
the uh mortgage market in Australia was much more vulnerable to interest rate hikes.
So there was a reluctance to raise rates quite as much as elsewhere, even though the the domestic case was very compelling.
So I think what we're seeing now is the sort of playing out of the second leg of that process, with the New Zealanders say paying catch up on the aggressive way down and the RBA being more cautious, recognizing that maybe
four hundred thirty five was not the justified peak.
You know, it was probably closer to five and a quarter, but we never got there.
So instead of cutting from five and a quarter back to four and a quarter, they're just waiting for everyone else to sort of ascend to that level.
And I'm pretty confident the RBA, you know, begins to ease as we go into the first half of next year.
No, I think I think I you know i see see the th th the problem uh any of these central banks has got now is that okay, we can see a compelling case to ease, but we're also aware that if we ease too aggressively too early
We're just gonna kinda keep inflation trapped a a two percent floor rather than around two percent as an average.
So then before you know it, we're back well, in Australia's case obviously the the average is target is a little little higher anyway.
But abstracting from that point, I think the risk many of them face is that as we go into twenty five H two, twenty six, twenty seven, you know, inflation's rising back to three, four percent again quite
quite quickly.
Especially if you get some of these dislocations that we've been talking about.
We haven't even talked about geopolitics and oil and all that sort of thing.
then, you know, you you could risk, you know, just just doing what they've all said they don't want to do, which is to lock into a materially higher inflation rate.
Showing 481–500 of 557 · page 25 of 28
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