Phil Suttle
speaker
557 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard Jul 2025
Phil Suttle’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And, you know, it was a case really of there was a guy called Pina Navarro, the trade advisor, who was probably in Trump's office every second minute in the first few weeks of first few days of April, and he probably got kicked out and replaced by Scott.
Scott Bessant, who came in and said, Look, guy, you keep doing this, we're we've got a big problem on our head.
So that was the the first taco effect uh kicking in.
And and the you s you see it with a bit of a lag in the actual trade data.
So um Chinese exports to the US fell from something like 45 billion uh in January, February to something like 20 billion, I think was the number in in April, and then rebounded.
back in May and June, still to a level that's well below.
where they were in January, February, but well off the lows.
I mean, a as I mentioned earlier, if we'd kept going with the April policy, you know, Liberation Day, you know, if it had just been maintained, I think by now we'd be in a pretty deep global
No, I no, I think I uh you know it's impossible to run these counterfactuals credibly, but yeah, I think I think
we we we would have had
a much weaker global picture through the middle of the year and in the end of the year, uh as it is with softer but not disastrous at the moment, will be my opinion.
Um and the losers would have been more more severe within the United States uh quite quickly.
But as it turns out, I think the losers within the United States are again it's a bit more of this sort of secular corrosive story rather than the
The uh the sharp son loss.
Well that's a that that's a very important point.
Um
There's there's a set of forces, you know, and again, w every what we can observe are outcomes of macro data we can't
you know, be a hundred percent clear on what's driving what.
Um
And I think there's a few things that surprised me in the last couple of months, last few months in the US.
Showing 81–100 of 557 · page 5 of 28
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