Rodrigo Catril

speaker

7,882 appearances 78 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 3 Sep

Rodrigo Catril’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 35 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Oil trapped by Strait’s jacket · 11 Mar 2026 podcast

So the dynamics are still suggesting that the the price pressures are are still there.

But

Well I think that the the um the so the central bank kind of uh playbook if you like is that uh typically when you have uh an inflationary shock of of of this side from the supply side you you tend to sort of look through it.

Um now if if that shock tends to be a little bit more longer lasting or has the the prospects of becoming more longer lasting, uh

and inflation expectations have the potential to become the anchored, that that's when, you know, the you you have a central bank probably leaning against it.

Um obviously the uh an extended rise in energy prices, an extended rise in um in um yeah, in inflation can also be demand destructive.

Uh uh but at this stage I think uh when it comes to the Fed uh the focus will be on on

whether this inflationary shock has the potential to de-hank inflation expectations.

Now what we have's been saying as well and what Sally has been saying that when you think about Australia

The problem that we have is that we already were in a situation where we have, you know, capacity constraints, uh a tight labor market, um and and inflation that is coming from from a lot of places.

So we do have an inflationary problem.

And now the pricing is really shifting hasn't increasing.

Yeah,

yeah, and that that's the reason why we have changed our call now, uh and kind of realize that, you know, all these inflationary pressures in addition to now what what is coming from from the the Iran conflict, um it's it's probably gonna force the hand of the RBI uh in into hiking and and in fact we are now we have been saying that the the but there there was the risk for uh a second hike in addition to the one we were expecting

in in May.

Um and now our view is that the the RBA, particularly given what RBA houses said uh last week, um it's kind of pretty much um likely to to to hike uh not only in March but also in May.

Yeah, it's interesting because uh um yields were rising pretty much uh at the start of the European session and into the early parts of the of the US session.

And by the time the auction came, uh as you said, it met uh tepid demand, uh but the rise in yield didn't didn't extend.

So it's almost like the the market was already sort of bracing itself for for uh a soft a soft reading.

Um and as you mentioned now we have the thing

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