Sally Auld

speaker

5,823 appearances 57 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 17 Aug

Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

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NAB Morning Call · Fed on hold for how long? RBA hike even more likely · 28 Jan 2026 podcast

And so maybe, you know, all L SQL that does take uh does take the heat off uh the Fed from having to do uh much more. matched

Mm. matched

Yes, I think that's right. matched

So, you know, I guess one one central bank who we do think is is likely to be an early hiker in the cycle is the RBA. matched

And we were looking for core inflation to print at point nine in the quarter. matched

That's where it came in. matched

Um and the the headline number um not also pretty solid as well. matched

So I think all up matched

Uh you know, we should bear in mind that as the Deputy Governor said earlier this year, it's not just about the inflation numbers. matched

So, you know, the the bank's reaction function is is not just a mechanical response to where inflation prints, but they will step back and take a look at the bigger picture. matched

And I guess when we do that, I think there are sort of three or four things that come to mind. matched

You know, the first one is clearly inflation's been running stronger than they expected in the back half of the year. matched

of last year, but also growth has been running stronger than expected too. matched

And we saw that with third quarter GDP. matched

And, you know, from what we can, I guess, gather from the data we've had so far so far about the fourth quarter, that seems to be a similar dynamic. matched

We know from our business survey that we've got elevated capacity utilization and it feels like an economy that's starting to bump up against those capacity. matched

constraints. matched

Uh and I guess this is all coming against a global backdrop. matched

You know, granted the geopolitical backdrop hasn't been um smooth sailing, but generally speaking, you know, it's been matched

at least in in the last sort of four to six weeks, a story of people revising up global growth expectations and a a broader sense of a reflationary backdrop. matched

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