Sam Winter-Levy
speaker
361 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2026
last heard 10 Mar
Sam Winter-Levy’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So first, on the technical side, some technical constraints will surely remain.
I mean, as we've discussed, these are very hard technical problems to solve, and powerful AI systems won't be able to evade the laws of physics.
But let's say a lot of these technical constraints evaporate.
I mean, I would just flag that Edward Geist has an argument that some of these problems may just be computationally intractable, even for extremely advanced AI systems.
I don't
I don't know if I would go that far, but the technical problems are very hard to solve.
But let's say the technical constraints evaporate.
There are still going to be a lot of political and institutional constraints that remain that will slow a state's ability to respond.
Because even if technology changes overnight, states don't generally...
integrate advanced technology at the same speed.
That rarely takes place.
Doing the kind of testing that you need to do, updating doctrine, updating bureaucratic systems, all of this stuff takes much longer in general than just like...
a technological breakthrough, especially when the stakes of getting it wrong are so high, when you need to avoid triggering a preemptive response, rehearsing thousands of steps with no room for error.
And so even if technological breakthroughs occur overnight, I think the political constraints, the institutional constraints, some of the normative constraints about whether leaders are actually going to act on these powers when they're thinking about legitimacy and public sign-off before rolling the dice, I think many of those constraints are likely to last longer.
How
long it's like a that's like an unknowable question um huge variation maybe between states between leaders and how quickly they respond but that's certainly going to be a lagging factor behind the speed at which just technology on its own is advancing
And that latter risk is just much more salient and visible.
Like states know what nuclear war looks like.
I think knowing what living in like an AGI world where another state has won this race, I think that's just, there's just so much more uncertainty about what that looks like, whether it really is that bad an outcome.
Like there's just huge uncertainty there.
Showing 321–340 of 361 · page 17 of 19
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