Samuel Charap

speaker

472 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 24 Mar

Samuel Charap’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war · 24 Mar 2026 podcast

But essentially.

You know, the idea of having commitments to undertake certain activities in case of certain contingencies as a general matter.

I mean, that's sort of the basis of most treaty obligations, mutual defense clauses, you know, basically even Article 5 says essentially in the event of.

attack, you know, we will treat it as an attack on ourselves and then think about what we should do in accordance with our constitutional obligations and so on.

So I think that the generic form of a pre-commitment to at least consider undertaking certain actions is

You know, has been legislated before and could be legislated in the future.

And, you know, we've had sanctions being contingent on certain things for for sure.

I think the point we tried to make in that article, which I co-wrote with Jeremy Shapiro, also in Foreign Affairs, was that essentially legislating it and having some sort of review mechanism there.

avoids the messy political debates problem and gets political buy-in in key countries so that if there is, in fact, a violation, Russia is denied the opportunity to use the salami slicing tactics that you described to sort of whittle away and get what they want without having any consequences.

Now,

It is true that the you know, even what we propose in the piece is a slightly more severe version of what what the West is doing now in terms of what would happen if Russia were to attack again.

And that's in terms of sanctions, military assistance and financial assistance.

But ultimately, I think that's not going to in itself be a deterrent.

Ukraine is also going to need its military to serve as part of that deterrent as well.

But I think that, yes, having a degree of automaticity will help make it more of an effective deterrent.

Yes, and there's also another piece of that, which is deep strike.

So the key weapons that have been the subject of the most heated debates in the West have been those that Ukraine could use with significant payloads to strike deep into Russia.

missile systems.

Essentially, they can do that now with their own domestically made drones, but the payloads are much lower.

And so the impact is much lower.

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