Samuel Charap

speaker

472 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 24 Mar

Samuel Charap’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war · 24 Mar 2026 podcast

its political conditions to ending the fighting.

But, you know, both sides are paying tremendous costs, obviously Ukraine disproportionately so, as this war continues.

And so you can see the logic of a ceasefire being, you know, seen by both as beneficial to some degree.

Wow, that's a good question.

So there are multiple dilemmas here, but the biggest one in negotiations to end war is fundamentally about how sides that are currently fighting each other can credibly commit

to stop in the other's eyes, credibly, right?

And that requires a sort of process whereby through the negotiation process, the other side can see that, hey, it's actually, they see it as in their interest

To end this and that they're willing to take steps that potentially are costly to them militarily, for example, to to get them there.

So, you know, process wise, since we're at such a phase of high intensity war at the moment, you would want a phased ceasefire.

So moving from one domain to another, say, starting with.

Right now would be most important for Ukraine energy infrastructure moving to, you know, no deep strikes at all.

So that is, you know, a certain distance from the front line.

Then, you know, maybe excluding the maritime domain, eventually moving closer and closer towards the ground, a full fledged ceasefire on the ground.

So have that process be gradual so that both sides can have a degree of confidence in it.

That would be part of it.

I think you'd want to have a sort of comprehensive negotiation that would get you a ceasefire as soon as possible at the end of that phase process and potentially link to that a framework for this broad and complicated deal that would get enough commitments essentially from both sides for them to feel confident, but without having to spell out all the details.

So that kind of thing is called a framework agreement.

And so if you've got a framework agreement and a ceasefire and essentially a commitment to launch a process that would produce a – essentially some sort of political settlement, it's not going to be a peace treaty in the traditional sense because Ukraine and Russia will have territorial disputes.

There will be lots of unanswered issues, but –

I think I would prefer to see the ceasefire up front and thus some sort of framework agreement to go along with it, because I think that's what will get Russia to accept it and then have a sort of much more detailed and drawn out negotiation process without, you know, people dying and and, you know, infrastructure being destroyed and so on.

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