Samuel Charap

speaker

472 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 24 Mar

Samuel Charap’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war · 24 Mar 2026 podcast

So, yeah, and then there would be a process on the ground of withdrawal.

You would want to have a monitoring mission there to ensure that.

So quite complicated.

I think at the end of it, I mean, Ukraine does have to... There are... This is not going to be easy.

And, you know, Ukraine is...

obviously the victim of aggression here.

But there are ways to incentivize the peace for Ukraine too, keeping the, you know, an accelerated path towards EU membership on the table, having significant financial incentives in the form of reconstruction and post-war military aid, a commitment to essentially build up the Ukrainian military into a very capable defensive force.

So, you know, there are ways to link a settlement to benefits to Ukraine as well.

Russia has accepted that since 2022.

That was actually part of the Istanbul communique in March of 22, the sort of deal that almost was in the early weeks of the war.

I think you're absolutely right.

And I think it's an underappreciated concession in a way, and a concession not necessarily to Ukraine, but to reality, to the reality that Russia is not going to be able to stop that process.

But yes, going back to 2013, of course, Russia undertook

some pretty extreme measures.

This is before the annexation of Crimea, but put a lot of economic pressure and provided a lot of economic incentives for the then President Yanukovych to not sign an association agreement, which was with the EU.

So basically, I think this is another element of the strategic catastrophe from a Russian perspective that they've essentially, politically and economically,

seeded the point that the government-controlled Ukraine will be beyond Russia's sphere of influence, so to speak.

Now, EU membership is a long and winding road.

It wouldn't be, you know, the US side seems to think that the EU could commit to doing that in 2027, which is just not going to happen.

I mean, it's a very bureaucratic process, but it can, you know, move relatively quickly.

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