Samuel Charap

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472 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 24 Mar

Samuel Charap’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war · 24 Mar 2026 podcast

has been the cover for aggression against Ukraine in the past.

So if it were to occur on the border of a NATO ally, and we should note, of course, NATO and Russia's border has expanded greatly since Finland's entry into the alliance in 2023, you know, we would be in a potentially dangerous situation where an ally might see what Russia is doing as preparation for aggression and might respond in kind.

So I think, to be clear, neither in that piece nor do I personally rule that kind of thing out.

I think militaries have to plan for worst case scenarios.

That's their job.

And so having some plans on the books to think about how to respond to that would, not having them would be negligence.

So I think it's important to do that.

But when we're thinking about what should be in, we shouldn't be exclusively focused on that scenario.

In part because Russia itself sees itself as the weaker party vis-a-vis NATO.

And it sees itself as likely to lose a war and therefore has been hesitant to engage.

Now, that might change if the U.S.

were to, say, withdraw.

But for the time being, despite all the ambiguity that exists,

political shifts in the U.S.

have inserted into all of this.

I think the fear about a united Western response to anything that looks like a conventional attack on a NATO ally serves as an effective deterrent.

I think Europe's going to have to put a lot of effort into trying to bolster that as the U.S., I think inevitably under this administration or another, shifts its focus.

But

Nonetheless, I think for the moment and I think for the foreseeable future, Russia is deterred precisely because it thinks it's not a war it could win.

It entered Ukraine, I should note, thinking that that would be a war that it could win easily.

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