Samuel Charap

speaker

472 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 24 Mar

Samuel Charap’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war · 24 Mar 2026 podcast

And usually decisions to go to war are motivated by a variety of factors.

It's sort of monocausality is very rare in these contexts.

But it's clear that, you know, in as Putin has articulated in his decision making, there were both these sort of imperialist drivers and security driven factors.

So to say that it was exclusively one or exclusively the other, I think, would be too black and white now.

I also think that the question about why the war started and how it might best be ended or how it could end have really now diverged in part because so much time has passed and also because this hasn't gone how the aggressor Russia thought it would.

So, whereas I think there's enough evidence to suggest that Russia was initially seeking regime change in Ukraine,

You know, since it retreated from the Capitol in the spring of 2022, almost now four years ago, it's hard to argue that they've been pursuing that same objective.

They've been pursuing other objectives that are perhaps no less objectionable, so to speak, but their goals have shifted over time.

So I think it is an important question about what motivated Putin to go to war.

And I see a mix of motives there.

But I think in a way, the question now is...

much more about what he'll need to stop, essentially.

I think that's absolutely right.

I mean, I think if you take a step back, this is a strategic catastrophe for Russia.

It has set itself back in terms of economic development by generations demographically, strategically in terms of its place in the world.

and its reputation.

I think that it's hard to, you know, really, no matter how the war ends now, this is a strategic catastrophe for Russia.

And I think, you know, many in the Russian elite recognize that.

But in terms of, you know, their threat perceptions now, I mean, they have a whole lot more to worry about to their west.

If we look about, you know, European military budget's

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