Skye Masters

speaker

5,023 appearances 53 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 2 Aug

Skye Masters’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Pickaxe Diplomacy · 21 Jul 2026 podcast

One thing that the UK officials have come out and said is that they will not be issuing war bonds to fund defence.

So I think that had been suggested a few weeks back.

officials saying that they're not going to do that.

But on bond yields more broadly, they have, outside of gilts, continued to track higher with, you know, and that's really largely being driven by the continued push higher in oil prices, which is fueling concerns around where inflation will be in the latter part of this year and what banks' reaction functions will be.

That is seeing markets sort of maintain expectations for central bank tightening before the end of the year.

So if I look at OIS curves, you've got sort of a cumulative 38 base points of tightening for the Fed price by the end of the year, cumulative 44 base points of tightening for the ECB by the end of the year,

and a cumulative 41 basis points for the BOE.

So even on the back of that unemployment rate number that we can talk about out of the UK, the market's still holding on to expectations of further rate hikes by the BOE.

Yeah.

So as you said, the unemployment rates had unchanged at 4.9 for that's the three months into May.

Interesting though, looking in the detail, the unemployment rate for those in the 16 to 24 year olds rose to 16.4%, which is its highest level since 2014.

So that's not a great number to be looking at.

You know, as you said, wage growth sort of steady, ex-bonus, it was steady at 3.4%, although private wage growth did edge down a little bit from 3% to 2.9%.

So overall, the data, I guess, is seen to reflect, I guess, a steady market, but there were some measures in there that continue to reflect some softening in the labour market.

In terms of other data overnight, it was actually a pretty quiet data flow session, but you did have US Philly non-manufacturing Fed report.

Now, this didn't move the market, but I think it's worth commenting on.

The headline index jumped quite a big jump in that headline index.

It moved from

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