Stephanie Roth
speaker
165 appearances
10 recordings
2 series
first heard Dec 2025
last heard 9 Jul
Stephanie Roth’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 10 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 5.
Appearances
I think there's an environment where you end up with job gains as a result.
So I think what's driving markets is, of course, AI, and that kind of is required to continue moving ahead in order for the U.S.
economy to be okay.
If tech cap-backs started to slow down materially as a result of AI, there was a, for whatever reason, they decided the return on that investment wasn't quite as high, the U.S.
economy would still be okay.
We're not at a place where AI is so ingrained and important to the economy that if those dynamics were to change, the economy would be in big trouble.
We estimate that the domestic share of AI-related CapEx is at 1.5% of GDP.
Housing is a little over three, so it's not that ingrained yet.
In a couple of years, if this continues at the pace, then the conversation is different.
It certainly is a shock.
I think the main thing that we have to remember is there is a lot of error in this report.
So I would not take much away from this.
The key thing that there's an issue with in the sense that when they're sampling the data, specifically around November, that the survey period was condensed into later in the month when you typically have significant holiday discounting.
And when we spoke with BLS, they said they're not doing anything to adjust those seasonals.
So that automatically makes the data artificially weak.
And we're probably going to see a bounce back in December.
I think that's entirely fair.
That there was this concern that around the holiday season, companies wouldn't really do the typical discounting that they usually do because of the tariffs.
That doesn't appear to be the case.
And we knew this heading into the data print because if you looked at a number of different indicators that survey the companies ahead of this holiday season, it showed a normal holiday discounting year.
Showing 101–120 of 165 · page 6 of 9
← Previous
Next →