Stephanie Roth

speaker
165 appearances 10 recordings 2 series first heard Dec 2025 last heard 9 Jul

Stephanie Roth’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 10 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 5.

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Bloomberg Talks · Chief Economist at Wolfe Research Stephanie Roth Talks November US CPI Report · 18 Dec 2025 podcast
So it doesn't appear like there was this, you know, lapse in discounting just because of tariffs.
In fact, it was a typical year for discounting.
And then on top of that, you have some of the issues within the data because of the government shutdown.
Yeah, I mean, so I think...
I think what we'll see is inflation will bounce back in the next couple of prints.
The economy will start to pick up again, in which case the Fed's probably going to be on hold for much of the beginning of next year.
Yeah, and we know that there was an issue.
I mean, they didn't even collect the October CPI for the most part.
We know that there are issues with the data.
So to form a strong conclusion about this print in particular as being some massive disinflationary period, I think is entirely inaccurate.
Yeah, I mean, so I think what we're seeing is a labor market that's holding up a lot better and, in fact, starting to inflect a bit higher from here.
And I think that's the main conclusion that we should take away from the headline jobs numbers.
Let me replace it, the private payrolls numbers.
The headline jobs numbers are impacted, again, by not necessarily the government shutdown in particular, but the deferred resignation program, which ended at the end of September.
These are people who took a severance package.
This is not people who lost their jobs.
So if you look at the
private payroll numbers, they were actually quite decent.
Now we're looking at a trend that's closer to the 70,000 range, which is really not bad.
And the fact the unemployment rate rose is less of a concern, I think, partially because there was, again, some issues with the government shutdown impacting the data.
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