Tapas Strickland

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3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Tariffs kick in & BoE’s Close Call · 7 Aug 2025 podcast

So at least d direct trade has definitely fallen.

Uh and uh when you look at the export data you can clearly see a surge towards uh towards Europe, uh see a surge towards Latin America, uh, and also a surge towards the ASEAN countries.

Now there may be some trends shipment happening there, uh, but it's also clear that uh Chinese goods are finding uh

alternative markets and at least here in Australia, uh you hear those stories about uh Chinese auto automakers making very big inroads into the Australian market.

And this is where the inflation outlook is quite interesting.

And the Bank of England, uh as we were talking about earlier, were making a few of these observations and some of the people who supported uh the rate cut in that five four decision was noting the potential for um uh trade diversion now that tariffs are more

More uh certain from the US and that trade diversion being potentially disinflationary for many economies.

And so as China finds those alternative markets, as China discounts, um, then uh you'll likely see some of that global goods disinflation, at least on the consumer side.

But at least uh the firms that I talk to um as part of NAB, uh they're very worried about capital goods.

Um so with all these tariffs on um uh steel, al aluminium, with

components flying back and forth, uh the potential price rises for capital goods are very, very real.

Indeed.

So that goods trade balance for June did beat expectations of five point four billion versus uh three point uh zero billion expected and one point six billion prior.

And as you're noting, uh gold was one big uh driver of that.

So total gold exports in the month rose to five point eight billion, and that makes gold actually Australia's third largest commodity export in July.

Who would have thought that?

Obviously Australia's largest commodity export is um Ein ore and then the second one is

Really LNG.

So gold is now outpacing coal, cocoa, and brickettes, which stood at 5.5 billion.

So I think that's a really interesting dynamic that has changed.

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