Tapas Strickland

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3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Should we be worried about US yields? · 21 May 2025 podcast

The rise by at least one to two percentage points if this uh tax big beautiful tax bill is passed. matched

Um, and so you've got this confluence of factors out there, and really at the end of the day, um the markets will be reacting to their assessments of the US fiscal position and other developments out there, and uh really it's gonna be how do US policymakers then respond to those doing. matched

So similar to how we had during the big tariff standoff early in April, does the bond market sell off act as a moderating force in terms of how much a policymaker can can do in this environment? matched

And I guess that's what we're looking at for. matched

Yeah. matched

Does the rise in US yields start to moderate some of the fiscal spend envelope that the US administration is talking about at the moment? matched

Mm. matched

So far it doesn't, and I guess that's where the concerning bit would would be there. matched

Yeah, so uh with the Fed I guess it's a little bit complicated here. matched

So they'll be looking at w does that r rise in yields, uh does that have a potential implication in terms of the outlook for the economy, both for inflation and for the unemployment rate? matched

Um so if if you were to get uh an excessive yield move, uh then you'd like to see US Fed officials starting to talk a little bit more about those kind of issues. matched

Uh the Fed's Bostic uh was on the wise I think early this week talking matched

about that uh bond market self that we saw in April, um to him at the time it wasn't that concerning. matched

Um but if you were to get a further development in these kind of moves and it were to look like it would have a bigger effect in terms of the unemployment rate trajectory and the inflation trajectory, then that's when the Fed would start be start to discuss a lot of these issues. matched

There's also market functioning issues around the US Treasury market as as well. matched

That they'll be looking at quite closely. matched

Well, when Moody's uh did do their downgrade um uh what was it uh early in the week, they noted that their forecast suggests that the US government deficit could get to around nine percent of GDP, which would be absolutely a s uh astounding in in terms of size. matched

So I think there's some really big issues here on the US fiscal position. matched

And uh just reiterating that case, uh the IMF uh first deputy managing director Gida Gopinath was saying a few matched

Comments on this in an F T interview that was released yesterday, she was saying the US fiscal deficits are too large and they need to be uh brought down and that the IMF's uh projections for the US budget deficit um didn't really include the components of the big beautiful tax bill in it. matched

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