Tapas Strickland

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3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Should we be worried about US yields? · 21 May 2025 podcast

So uh that would suggest that uh there's upside risk to the US deficit projections. matched

And then the E C B in its financial stability review, which I think was released um uh over matched

Knight um also said that um the signs of changeability of government policy in the US is making investors nervous about US assets, so that kind of sell America trade effectively. matched

Uh and just I wanted to quote one thing out there, and it was just uh the unpredictability of a broad range of US policies seems to have led investors to require higher risk premia on US assets. matched

At the same time it could have also shaken confidence in the US dollar as a global reserve currency and US sovereign bonds as safe haven. matched

Assets. matched

Now that's that's quite an assertive statement coming from a conservative inst institution such as the ECB. matched

So uh something worth worth pondering there. matched

Uh when you look at estimates such as term premier, so you look at the the term premier estimates that are calculated by the New York Fed, uh particularly on the 10-year part of the curve. matched

Um there those those estimates have risen by about uh 70 to 80 basis points since when Trump was first elected. matched

So the term premier, a matched

least in terms of how it's calculated and there's many different ways you can calculate the term term premium, many different frameworks, but at least it is suggestive of about a seventy to eighty basis point rise uh since when Trump Trump was elected. matched

And uh perhaps that's a premium that uh investors are putting on for a lot of this policy uncertainty and maybe that premium gets extended uh if it looks like uh such a large um uh fiscal package is matched

is looking like it's going to be passed through budget reconciliation. matched

It's still very early days there. matched

Mm. matched

Um and so uh we'll just have to see exactly how how that develops. matched

No, and I think it's fair to say that a lot of the rise in prices that you did see in April was due to administered price ri price increases as well as a a big spike in Fair costs because of the shifting timing of Easter relative to different years. matched

Um but saying that, most analysts did think inflation was going to be higher today and the report is higher than most of those analysts' expectations. matched

So um whichever way you cut it, it's not matched

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