Tapas Strickland

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3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Will US jobs survive the tariff war? · 4 May 2025 podcast

Um so uh to what extent um the soundings around what's going on in China, uh particularly around the prospect of of trade talks, whether that starts to spill over to to Europe?

Whether you get increased optimism coming out of Europe in terms of its negotiations with with the US, I think that's going to be the focal point.

Uh so far that degree of optimism has not emerged.

There's some really big issues there, particularly on the agricultural side.

Uh but uh if you look at market pricing, markets are still pricing about a ninety percent chance of a twenty five basis point cut at the ECB's June meeting.

Yeah, that's right.

So with the Fed, we expect them to be on on hold, as we were talking about uh before.

They've been saying for quite some time that they're waiting for um the weakness to start to show up in the hard economic data, just given that they're a little bit worried about inflation and uh keeping inflation expectations anchored uh in that type of in environment there.

So we expect the Fed to be on hold, we expect them to be on on hold in June.

But as the uh soft economic data

starts to be reflected in the harder e economic data, then we start to think that the US Fed will start to cut rates from say the July meeting.

That's broadly what's priced by markets uh at at the moment.

Uh for the Bank of England, we also expect them to uh so for

Well, the Bank of England, in contrast, we expect them to cut rates by twenty-five basis points to four point two five percent.

Um but there is some data that is coming up today that's just worth noting.

So we do get the US services ISM.

Uh and the US services ISM yeah i is is a pretty good read in terms of the services sector in the US economy.

Uh consensus there expects it to fall back to fifty point three from fifty point eight.

But if that were to fall back more sharply, um then that would probably tell you that there is greater likelihood of

of the uh hit to harder economic data in the months ahead and that potential hit could be real relatively soon.

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