Tapas Strickland
speaker
3,313 appearances
30 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Aug 2025
Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Big, big surprise.
So retail volumes were flat in the first quarter of twenty twenty five.
And um that takes some of the optimism and gloss that uh many people had uh coming out of the end of last year when you did see a pick up in retail sales and a pick up in a few other indicators out there.
So that cost of living squeeze is is still playing out.
When you look at the earnings results from, say, the major listed supermarkets, say Coles and Woolies in Australia, uh they're still reporting
extensive trading down and trading across um and uh people buying less meat, not buying bottled water, all those kind of things.
So all those kind of things that people are cutting back on is still occurring.
So um it it it it it may take a little bit more time for um real income growth which has now turned positive to actually start to flow through to increase optimism so in in terms of consumer.
At the next meeting.
I I think a cut is v virtually locked in for the next meeting, purely based on the inflation profile.
Uh and then what what this probably says is uh greater confidence that we're talking more about a series of cuts than than maybe just another one off cut.
Um just because the uh pickup in the economy seems to be taking a little bit slower than what the RBA was was was thinking.
And just a bit of caution on retail sales.
Retail sales are about a third of household consumption, so it's not the total consumption.
picture here.
But uh retail volumes were flat and the RBA's forecasts uh that date back from the February statement of monetary policy had uh consumption rising by zero point seven percent Q on Q in each each quarter in the first half of the year.
So it does look at this stage that consumption is un undershooting the RBA's forecast track here.
Oh yeah, so l little bit of a lift up there.
But again, um with with Europe, I don't think anyone's really looking too closely at the inflation figures at at the moment.
What they're really worried about is the activity and growth here coming from uh the trade and tariff tensions.
Showing 1221–1240 of 3,313 · page 62 of 166
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