Taylor Nugent

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7,962 appearances 80 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 27 Aug

Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Otherwordly · 4 Aug 2026 podcast

uh in in this data as well.

But I think even with kind of those caveats in in mind, certainly it signals broad resilience in in um household spending.

And we've been kind of noting this risk for a while and really kind of when you think about the themes that are driving our outlook for below trend growth and consumption this year and next year, it's that real income pressure and and um the headwind from uh the housing market that you know continues to mean we're kind of brought comfortable with that

That forecast.

But when you think about kind of the pattern of that squeeze on households, just how sharply full fuel prices were falling back between kind of March and and June.

Um, you know, there is that risk that kind of the the recent data is, you know, gonna show some some more strength than those kind of longer term themes.

And I think we're we're seeing that borne out in in the data.

So I think there, you know, maybe there's a little bit of upside risk to our um Q two real household consumption forecast of

Yeah, so I think um on that point, I think one thing to note there is that these are nominal numbers.

So again, that kind of fallback in in fuel prices has been useful on that um that non-discretionary spending component.

So yeah, I think the you know the the kind of that that split between different types of spending, you know, it's it's interesting, but kind of there's there's caveats over this data and certainly the read through to the the final uh consumption numbers that are that are released in in GDP.

So I don't think we need to focus too

much on those kind of, you know, s movements in in the categories and other things, but I think that broad story that kind of spending growth has has held up pretty well.

And, you know, why is that?

Well it could well be that kind of that squeeze on on household incomes hasn't wasn't as material as as earlier feared and that's been bought out in some strength here.

Yeah, I I think that's the that's you know, the key question here for the RBA.

They they need below trend growth.

Their their assessment is that they need below trend growth to see things continue to move towards balance and have this elevated inflation that we're still seeing at the moment not become entrenched and be comfortable that we'll fall away as we move past these near term cost pressures that have kind of, you know, re-accelerated over the past few months.

The the fallback in in uh pet uh oil prices over the past couple of days notwithstanding.

Um, but yeah, I think what this data says is that, you know, maybe it's not falling away quickly in in the short term, but you know, the RBA to their credit wasn't really expecting things to kind of fall off a cliff when they drew their their May forecasts either.

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