Taylor Nugent
speaker
7,962 appearances
80 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 27 Aug
Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.
Appearances
And so I guess when they kind of put all of this into their assessment, it's just about do they have that comfort that these themes that are generating below trend growth in our forecasts and their forecasts as well are are, you know, going to to flow through over time.
Yeah, so you know, small small moves as you say in jolts.
I don't think there's anything here to kind of really shift people's assessments of of where the labor market is.
Um, as you said there, a a small fall in in openings that was a little bit below consensus, but kind of if you look over the last three months, the the openings numbers in in jolts are showing a a you know, bit of strength actually, which is kind of hard to square with some other indicators um of of job advertising and other things.
So, you know, it'll be interesting to see whether that sustains.
Um
And regardless, kind of that uh ratio of uh vacancies to to unemployed people, it was little changed in the month.
Quits rate remains low or steady at at two point zero percent.
Layoffs rate also remain low, steady at one point one percent.
So, you know, I don't think there's, you know, really anything here to to shift expectations.
The kind of big test for uh pay for the labor market assessment is is payrolls on Friday and we get ADP data uh before that.
I think
you know, where we are in the US at the moment and we had some comments from the Fed's Paulson uh on this as well.
I think kind of a lot of near term focus is is on those inflation dynamics.
Paulson was saying that she is keeping an open mind about where policy goes from here.
Um but kind of that she painted two scenarios and they were kind of very much uh, you know, teeing off the the near term inflation rate and suggesting that, you know, if they do see progress, uh then
Mm-hmm.
No, they can stay on hold, but if they don't see that progress, then um they've got to be open to to recalibrating monetary policy.
So no big surprises there, but I think it just says that, you know, something near expectations and broadly consistent with a labor market that's somewhere near full employment is is, you know, not really in in the driver's seat unless we get a a big surprise there because it's, you know, how how that inflation data comes in in in the near term that looks to be uh where the Fed is is more.
Most focused at the moment.
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