Taylor Nugent
speaker
7,962 appearances
80 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 27 Aug
Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.
Appearances
The unemployment rate there remained at 4.4% as expected, but you know, the surprise came from a very, very strong 76k jump in employment.
So those month-to-month employment figures in Australia continue to be uh pretty volatile.
Um certainly the the market uh reaction there took their cues from that employment beats rather than rather than the unemployment rate.
Um I think you know, when we look at the data.
It's, you know, the way to square the circle of that very strong employment print plus an unemployment rate that stayed at 4.4 is that, you know, there was an increase in labor supply in the background here as well.
So the participation rate jumped.
And I think that's relevant in terms of, you know, there is some evidence strength in employment growth here, but it is being met by the supply side.
And so it's not tightening the labor market.
The unemployment rate is 4.4.
On average over Q2, that's above where the RBA thought it would be at 4.2%.
And you've also seen the underemployment rate moving higher over the past uh three months or so as well, now up around half a percentage point over over that period.
And so that's saying that you know there are people who are employed um that would like to be working more hours.
And so maybe that's saying that some of the cost of living pressures mean that, you know, there's incentives to stay in the labor market to not leave.
your job, um, whether you where you might have otherwise, and if you are working, you're you're looking to work more hours are feeding through into meaning that this kind of you know strength in employment growth isn't tightening the labor market.
That said, if we think about what this means for the RBA, obviously inflation risks are are elevated.
If we roll into August, it's relevant that the underutilization measures, the unemployment rate is a little above where they were
Forecasting.
But that strength in employment growth probably means it's a bit of a muddier signal than they would have liked to be confident, confident that's the right takeaway for the outlook.
And so I think you know the challenge here and why markets are now pricing the risk of a um of an August increase a little bit more.
Some of that uh coming after the employment data, um, the rest of it coming in in response to that kind of move higher in oil is the
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