Taylor Nugent
speaker
7,962 appearances
80 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 27 Aug
Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.
Appearances
the bar for the RBA to be comfortable that that growth and labor market backdrop is is weak enough to um for them to stay on hold and and look through some of the the near term inflation risks just feels a bit higher given a murky signal out of um given that strength in employment and the the reescalation in in the Middle East and how that's flowing through to to inflation risks.
Yeah, well, I I think the household spending dynamics will be interesting to watch because we're s we expect consumption growth to be reasonably slow this year and next year, somewhere around one point four percent.
But you know, what are the big drivers of that?
You know, the slowdown in the housing market will take time to feed through, but we think that will feed through.
And the squeeze on on household incomes from higher interest rates, but also from elevated inflation is going to be a a driver of those dynamics as well.
But if we think in the short term,
With just how much fuel prices fell back through the second quarter, that near-term squeeze on household incomes and household real incomes is hasn't actually been as material as we might have earlier expected.
And so I think there is a little bit of a risk here that that kind of near-term data doesn't show as much of a hit to spending and activity as might have earlier been expected, even if it is coming and those themes are still.
Still intact.
And so I think that, you know, is relevant when we're thinking about, you know, what's the how is the RBA going to be thinking about these risks?
To be clear here, our view is still that, you know, there will be enough slowing.
The RBA will be confident enough in forecasts for below trend growth and some continued gradual easing in the labor market to keep policy rates where they are.
But you know, they have continued to run policy with a lot of emphasis on full employment, very little buffer.
And so it's pretty clear.
where the where the near term risks lie given how uh these kind of you know energy price developments are are evolving.
Exactly, yeah.
And so I suppose your expectations there are for Europe to move, you know, a basis point or or two higher, but for that services measure um to not break fifty, so that'll be interesting.
Expectations are for for forty nine point eight.
Um and that theme in the PMIs has been and is expected to continue to be a bit of relative US strength there with kind of their manufacturing uh PMI up near fifty-four and expected to increase a little bit um and serve.
services um above fifty and expect it to to move up to fifty one point five.
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