Theo Jaffee

Not just for elections or sports betting, but for helping companies, governments, and individuals make better decisions.

That vision is becoming more relevant as platforms like Polymarket and Calshi bring prediction markets into mainstream culture.

But it's also triggering backlash, including new efforts to criminalize or restrict these systems.

At the center of the debate is a deeper question.

Are prediction markets just gambling, or are they a new form of social coordination and knowledge discovery?

Theo Jaffe and Sofia Puccini speak with Robin Hanson about prediction markets, futurism, games, and the future of forecasting.

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This episode originally aired on NTS.

Open-source software built much of the modern internet.

Linux, Apache, Kubernetes, and even the transformer architecture behind ChatGPT all spread because researchers and developers could study, modify, and improve them in public.

But AI is increasingly moving in the opposite direction, with the most powerful models distributed behind closed APIs, controlled by a small number of companies.