Tim Lawless

speaker

584 appearances 2 recordings 2 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 8 Jul

Tim Lawless’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Straight Talk with Mark Bouris · Property Expert: Why Australian House Prices Are Falling Faster Than Expected · 8 Jul 2026 podcast

So I think for most investors now, if you can't negatively gear an established home, the math just doesn't stack up.

The holding costs become prohibitive and your serviceability assessments become very hard if you can't include a negative gearing rebate.

The second part of the budget I think that's been really impactful is simply on sentiment, on confidence.

Confidence was already low due to higher inflation, due to what's happening in Iran.

And then the budget was handed down.

And now there's just increased almost palpable levels of uncertainty, especially with all the backpedaling and the carve-outs we're starting to see in the federal budget as well.

And we know that confidence for housing is critical.

When confidence is low, you generally see less housing turnover.

When confidence is high, you have a much better ability to make high commitment financial decisions.

So we're not seeing that at the moment.

Yeah.

So pretty much leading into the budget, that's exactly the number.

It was about 41% of demand was being driven by investment, which was elevated.

Long-term, you'd expect investors to be about a third of demand, about 33%.

No, there's definitely some variability.

So national, at least the March quarter, that's the most recent numbers, 41% of demand was coming from investment.

If you go to somewhere like Victoria, that had one of the lowest profiles for investors, but it was still 37%.

That's still quite elevated, but nowhere near as high as New South Wales, which was about 44% of demand being driven by investment.

Right.

So if you go back to periods where investors have pulled back sharply in the market, and the most recent evidence of that or the most recent example would be back in 2018, 2019, when we had the Royal Commission and APRA had put in a couple of macro potential policies that really restricted investment lending, we saw investors pull back to about 24% of demand.

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