E006: Could This Be the Next Recession? The State of Commercial Mortgage Backed Security Loans

In this episode of "Commercially Speaking", we delve into the current state of Commercial Mortgage Backed Security (CMBS) loans and what it means for the commercial real estate market. Our guest, Lonnie Hendry, Senior Vice President and Head of CRE & Advisory at Trepp, Inc., shares his expertise on valuation, appraisals, analytics, modeling, and financial analysis in the industry. We discuss the pros and cons of CMBS loans, their dire state, and what factors from the Federal Reserve could impact the commercial real estate market in the coming weeks. We also touch on Elon Musk's unique view of the market, having recently acquired Twitter and the CRE leases that came with it. With a focus on how the industry affects local businesses and towns, this episode is perfect for CRE investors, users of space, and anyone new to the industry looking to stay informed. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion! 📒Show Notes📒 Find Lonnie Hendry: Twitter: @Lonnie_CRE, @treppwire www.trepp.com Links mentioned by Lonnie: CMBS 101: https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/cmbs-101-trepp-guide-life-cmbs-loan-part-1 Treppwire Podcast: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnXDHM1VdwGdSBu-0h8pCv9r72F8EhBC3 Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-treppwire-podcast-a-commercial-real-estate-show/id1507205213 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3JNmPPn5lENUdUEvk5gVC7?si=eoMTsWGARr-LHsrlP8JP8g&nd=1 Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/the-treppwire-podcast 🎉Join the party, stay informed, access bonus content, the blog and more: [tinyurl.com/CRE-Podcast-sign-up](http://tinyurl.com/CRE-Podcast-sign-up) Subscribe and listen to Commercially Speaking Here: Youtube: [https://www.youtube.com/@commerciallyspeaking](https://www.youtube.com/@commerciallyspeaking) Spotify: [https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/commerciallyspeaking](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/commerciallyspeaking) Amazon Music: [https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/ad036303-414c-4e30-9e89-768d30ed3ffb/commercially-speaking](https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/ad036303-414c-4e30-9e89-768d30ed3ffb/commercially-speaking) Apple: [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/commercially-speaking/id1680750330](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/commercially-speaking/id1680750330) Spotify: [https://open.spotify.com/show/4omTZAPlCBYgJrqBuXrdCG](https://open.spotify.com/show/4omTZAPlCBYgJrqBuXrdCG) ConvertKit Optin Page: [https://barron-commercial-group.ck.page/keep-me-informed](https://barron-commercial-group.ck.page/keep-me-informed) ⏰Time Code⏰  00:00 - INTRO 02:48 - What is CMBS? 03:39 - Savings & Loan (CMBS Orgin Story) 04:55 - CMBS as a Bond 06:01 - Bo Interprets 07:07 - How The Market Will Fall Apart 08:01 - CMBS in Timmy Talk 09:00 - ADHD Super Power 09:35 - What Happens Next? (The FED) 12:26 - Why Is This Happening? 14:46 - 25% of CRE Balloon Payments are Due 15:21 - Is CRE Doomed? 16:31 - Bank Failures 19:27 - Mark To Market 20:33 - Local Level CRE 22:07 - Covenance 22:51 - Where To Get a CMBS Loan? 23:32 - Where To Get Informed? 24:42 - What is Trepp? 30:02 - POP QUIZ 35:26 - Elon Musk vs CRE --- 📲 Connect with us: Subscribe to our Youtube: [https://www.youtube.com/@commerciallyspeaking](https://www.youtube.com/@commerciallyspeaking) Instagram: [https://www.instagram.com/commerciallyspeaking/](https://www.instagram.com/commerciallyspeaking/) Facebook: [https://www.facebook.com/commerciallyspeaking](https://www.facebook.com/commerciallyspeaking) Tiktok: [https://www.tiktok.com/@commerciallyspeaking](https://www.tiktok.com/@commerciallyspeaking) Follow us on Twitter: @comspeakpod & @bobarronccim --- Bo is the owner and operator of Barron Commercial Group in Owensboro, KY servicing the Western KY and surrounding markets. For all CRE inquiries visit [http://www.barroncommercial.com](http://www.barroncommercial.com/) Timmy is an actor, comedian, writer and host. You can follow him pretty much everywhere @timmyhartbarron #commercialrealestate #crecrisis #ccim #adhd

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