AM 28 Sep 26: Key week for rates, ASX to open flat
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Is the RBA likely to raise interest rates this week?
A listener production.
Is a rate hike on the cards this week? The Aussie share market set to open flat. Plus, AI stocks again push Wall Street higher. Good morning, I'm James Gruber. And I'm Gillian Bowen. It's Monday the 28th of September and this is the morning edition of the ComSec Market Update.
Well, welcome to the start of a new week, and it's an important one. We've been talking about it for weeks. What will the Reserve Bank do at its next meeting when it comes to interest rates? And tomorrow afternoon, we'll finally have the board's answer. Now, if you're a regular listener of the podcast, you'll know we've been talking about expectations of a rate hike.
How will the expected rate decision affect the Australian share market open?
for some time. And of this morning, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rise, which would take the official cash rate to 4.6%.
Yeah, it's certainly the focus of the week and so will be the written statement that accompanies the decision and the news conference the Governor Michelle Bullock holds shortly after the decision is revealed. It'll be interesting to hear the tone the RBA adopts and any indications in the commentary of what the path looks like beyond tomorrow's decision. There's another RBA meeting in November and also in December, so plenty to come before the year end.
Yeah, now we've discussed this a lot on the podcast as well, both morning and afternoon, about how sticky inflation has strengthened the case for a rate hike. And on that, a day after tomorrow's decision, we will actually get an update on the inflation front. Monthly CPI is being released for August. So it'll be interesting to see what direction things are moving in when that data comes out on Wednesday morning. A lot to think about. So how is that likely to impact the
open this morning, James? Well,
What’s driving the recent moves in oil, copper, gold and other commodities?
Well, we're expecting the Aussie share market to open steady a little later today. Futures were flat when they were last trading, perhaps a bit of a wait and see ahead of the rates decision. On Friday, the ASX 200 finished the day lower, dropping 0.4% and set a new 50-day low. Our market has had four consecutive weeks of losses, and September is living up to its billing as a traditionally poor-performing month for equities, at least here in Australia.
Let's move on to commodities. And look, Friday can feel like such a long time ago when things unfold over the weekend, for example, on the Middle East conflict, James. But take us through what unfolded on the trading day there.
So oil prices fell on mounting hopes for a truce between the US and Iran after reports emerged that Iran has proposed a plan to end the conflict. Brink crude futures settled down more than 2% at $104.32 a barrel. Base metal prices were mixed. Copper futures declined 0.3% as investors remained wary about the potential for more rate hikes that could dampen metals demand. Meanwhile, aluminium futures inched up 0.2%.
Why did AI‑related stocks push U.S. indices higher at the end of last week?
Gold futures advanced as bargain hunters stepped in to buy the yellow metal. The futures settled 0.5% higher at US$4,321 an ounce. Iron ore futures edged lower with futures settling 0.1% lower at just above US$97 a tonne.
So if we have a look at currencies, they were steady against the US dollar this morning. One Australian dollar is buying 70.24 US cents. The euro is worth 1.1389 US dollars, while one US dollar is buying 157.24 Japanese yen. All right, let's get a wrap up of what's unfolded overseas with markets at the end of last week. The Dow Jones finished up 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the NASDAQ added the same amount. So James, what's happened there for US share markets?
So those markets ended high, lifted by Microsoft and other AI-related technology stocks. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% for the week, while the Nasdaq rose 2% for the week after it notched a record high close on Tuesday. Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose on Friday, led by information technology up 0.9%, followed by a 0.6% gain in industrials.
How are Australian bond yields changing and why are they in the spotlight?
Microsoft rallied 3.7%, lifting its 2026 gain to 7% after the software giant unveiled several new capabilities in its co-pilot app, including a coding tool and an always-on AI agent.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Is the RBA likely to raise interest rates this week?
0:02–0:47
2
How will the expected rate decision affect the Australian share market open?
0:47–1:49
3
What’s driving the recent moves in oil, copper, gold and other commodities?
1:49–3:01
4
Why did AI‑related stocks push U.S. indices higher at the end of last week?
3:01–4:24
5
How are Australian bond yields changing and why are they in the spotlight?
4:24–5:50
6
Which Australian stocks and dividend events are on today’s watch‑list?
5:50–7:50
7
What should investors watch for after today’s market update?
7:50–8:47
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from CommSec Market Update
PM 25 Sep 26: Markets brace for rate hike
AM 25 Sep 26: ASX set to fall, oil prices back in focus
PM 24 Sep 26: ASX reacts to higher unemployment
AM 24 Sep 26: Wall Street tumbles as bond yields surge
PM 23 Sep 26: Market holds breath ahead of jobs data
AM 23 Sep 26: Nasdaq hits fresh record as oil drops below $100