Trump says the economy is in 'transition.' What comes after?
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What did Trump promise about the economy during his campaign?
On the campaign trail back in 2024, then-candidate Donald Trump made big promises for the economy.
The next Trump economic boom will begin on November 5th, 2024. It's going to be a boom like no other.
And he had a special message to investors.
You better hope I win because otherwise you're going to be in 1929 territory in my opinion.
Trump rode that economic message to a decisive victory in November. And on the heels of that victory, there were in fact some positive signs in the stock market. Maybe not a boom, but certainly a big bump. The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and Nasdaq composites all closed at record highs the day after the election.
What were the immediate market reactions post-election?
The market's gone through the roof. Enthusiasm's doubled. It's doubled in the last short while. And I watched a liberal commentator say, you know, whether you like him or not, there seems to be a beautiful light shining over our country and even over the world.
Fast forward to this week, and that beautiful light seems to have dimmed. The S&P 500 closed in correction territory Thursday, down 10 percent from its recent high. As we record, it has bounced back some, but it still looks like a fourth straight losing week. And Trump has struck a different tone. Here he is on Fox News last weekend.
Are you expecting a recession this year?
Is a recession expected according to Trump?
No. I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing.
Consider this. Trump says we can expect a little disturbance in the economy, but he promises his tariff strategy will remake the American economy for the better. Will it? From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang.
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Shortwave
It's Consider This from NPR. A little disturbance. A period of transition. A detox period. These are all phrases that President Trump and his administration have used to describe the economy as the stock market has plunged. in response to an onslaught of tariffs. But President Trump is adamant that his tariffs will ultimately bring revenue, jobs, and factories to the U.S. So the question is, is this short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain? Or are these just the early signs of a recession? To help us answer that question, we're joined now by economist Matt Slaughter. He's the dean at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. Welcome. Thank you. Pleasure to be here. Pleasure to have you.
What is Trump's explanation for the current economic situation?
So can you just first try to spell out what is President Trump's explanation, as you understand it, for what is happening in the economy right now? And where does he say the economy is headed? Sure. I think the metaphor of short-term pain is the president articulating that his attempt to try to restructure the American economy will generate costs and disruptions in the short term. I think what's being missed, however, is that the more accurate forecast is that what the United States is setting itself up for is not just short-term pain, but long-term pain as well. Well, I was just going to ask you because President Trump is trying to assure people that any disturbance that's felt right now is only temporary. Is it only temporary? It sounds like you don't think it is temporary.
It is unlikely to be temporary. The breadth and depth of the tariffs that are being imposed and the possible additional policies that might restrict international investment and immigration, those are going to damage the United States, not just in the short term, but in the long term as well.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What did Trump promise about the economy during his campaign?
0:00–0:42
2
What were the immediate market reactions post-election?
0:42–1:26
3
Is a recession expected according to Trump?
1:26–4:02
4
What is Trump's explanation for the current economic situation?
4:02–5:41
5
What are the potential long-term effects of Trump's economic strategies?
5:41–7:40
6
Can Trump's tariffs actually restore U.S. manufacturing?
7:40–10:40
Speakers
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