US-Iran ceasefire, next move in rates could be down, Musk’s trillions
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Welcome to Fear and Greed, business news you can use.
What is the significance of the US-Iran ceasefire?
Today, the US and Iran are set to sign a 60-day ceasefire which will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A growing number of local market economists believe the next move in interest rates could be down. And in the increasingly crazy world of technology, Elon Musk's worth hits $1 trillion as Anthropic's latest AI model is suspended because it's too dangerous. Plus, the housing market has another week to forget. and Qantas Mulls dumping its A380s. It is Monday, the 15th of June, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael. A cracking show this morning. I was about to say, there is a lot to get through and only 15 minutes to do it, so let's not... Let's not waste any time. The main story this morning, Sean, US President Donald Trump said that the US and Iran will sign a deal to extend the current ceasefire in place in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
And that is likely as early as this morning, Australian time.
What are the implications of potential interest rate cuts?
The president said as soon as the deal is signed, the Strait would be open to all. We have been at the brink of a deal before, only to be disappointed, right? But this time... Critically, Pakistani Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif, who is the key go-between for the two sides, said that an electronic signing of a memorandum of understanding was expected within 24 hours. So this is not just one side or the other saying it.
How has Elon Musk's wealth changed recently?
This is the person in the middle who's kind of doing all the deals. Iran's foreign ministry said that the timing of the signing was unclear, though it did suggest that a signing was likely.
Yeah, so we've got Pakistan and Qatar has also been involved. They've been leading the mediation efforts to extend the April 8 ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the strait and lay the framework for negotiations on Iran's nuclear program with the aim of reaching a final deal to end the war. The FT says the terms of the deal include Iran not charging tolls on vessels transiting the strait, at least initially. The US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports. And Iran would reaffirm it will not develop nuclear weapons. Tehran and Washington would agree to resolve during the nuclear talks the disposal of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. Now, apparently it has 9,000 kilos of enriched uranium. That can't be good news.
What challenges is the housing market currently facing?
The good news is it's low quality uranium. enriched uranium. However, I'd like to know how you get rid of enriched uranium, but that's kind of beyond my pay grade, I think.
What are Qantas's plans for its A380 fleet?
I love that you found a silver lining within the low-grade uranium, that it is in fact low-grade and not high-grade, so it's all right, not weapons-grade perhaps. I suppose what I'm interested in here, Sean, is what happens if the deal is signed in terms of the flow-on effects of that? How long is it going to take for drivers to feel the impact via kind of lower oil prices? What does it mean for inflation broadly and then interest rates? There's a lot of things that will be affected by this.
Yes, so Donald Trump said the strait would reopen immediately. Having said that, it'll take about 30 days for Iran to clear the strait of mines. That's the estimate. Then many more months to get shipping back to normal levels. The global price of oil will fall if a deal is done. But petrol prices locally aren't going back to the levels of January, February for a few months yet, especially if the federal government doesn't extend the 32 cents a litre excise holiday. It takes time to ramp up oil production. Then you've got to get the oil on the ships. Then you've got to get them to Australia, which is a long, long way away. Now, to be honest, at about $1.62, I might be wrong, but that's broadly what petrol prices, unleaded petrol is trading at the moment.
That's not far off where it was before the war occurred. The difference at the moment is that the excise has 32 cents a litre, excise has come off. That's why it's about the same price. And the government hasn't told us that we're going to actually have that extended.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:06–0:08
2
What is the significance of the US-Iran ceasefire?
0:08–1:05
3
What are the implications of potential interest rate cuts?
1:05–1:34
4
How has Elon Musk's wealth changed recently?
1:34–2:35
5
What challenges is the housing market currently facing?
2:35–2:46
6
What are Qantas's plans for its A380 fleet?
2:46–14:04
7
How will the US-Iran deal affect global oil prices?
14:04–17:08
Speakers
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