Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School
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What are prediction markets and why are they controversial?
If you find yourself bewildered by this moment where there's so much reason for despair and so much reason to hope all at the same time, let me say I hear you. I'm Ezra Klein from New York Times Opinion, host of The Ezra Klein Show. And for me, the best way to beat back that bewildered feeling is to talk it out with the people who have ideas and frameworks for making sense of it. There is going to be plenty to talk about. You can find The Ezra Klein Show wherever you get your podcasts.
Well, Kevin, very nice to be with you here in New York City.
Reunited at last.
Are you having a great time in New York this week?
I am, yes. I got to see some friends last night, got to go to Brooklyn. I'm not seeing a show, but I am staying in Times Square, so I feel like I'm seeing a show every morning.
Wonderful. Well, I've also been out on the town, going to cool parties, meeting new people. I met this gay guy the other day who said he was a listener to the show. Oh.
Is Congress ready to regulate prediction markets?
And I said, oh, hi. And he said, oh, you're from Hard Fork. Which one are you? And I said, I'm the gay one. And he said, I thought you both were gay. And I had to explain to him that straight people also perform acapella.
Oh.
And it blew his mind. It completely blew his mind.
Wow. I feel like I have talked about my wife a non-negligible amount on this show.
It's reaching Borat levels of talking about one's wife. And yet still, you know, people don't always pay close attention to what they're listening to. And we're going to get into that later in the episode.
Yeah.
How did Joanna Stern spend a year using AI in her life?
Is it because they think people sent some sort of chemistry between us? Is that like a thing? No, he specifically said that he did not think that we had any chemistry. Okay, so we're just platonic.
Yeah, no, it's completely platonic. I think it's great, though, because it just goes to show you can listen to a podcast for a long time and still not really understand anything you're listening to. And I take that as a no. We should keep that in mind as we plan our segments.
That's very good.
It's not all going to come across.
That's incredible.
Yeah. I'm Kevin Russo, tech columnist at The New York Times. I'm Casey Newton from Platformer. And this is Hard Fork.
What challenges did Joanna face while using AI for personal tasks?
This week, prediction markets are out of control. Is Congress about to rein them in? Then, Joanna Stern returns to the show to discuss her new book on turning her life over to a chatbot. Finally, Hard Fork's own Rachel Cohn returns to the show to talk about her first month at attention school. She has our full attention. She does. She does.
Well, Kevin, a few weeks ago, you predicted we would soon do another segment on prediction markets, and I'm happy to tell you that prediction has now come true.
Oh, thank God. My bet is going to pay out on Kalshi.
It is, because as I was looking at the news of the week, it seemed like everywhere I opened up a browser tab, Kevin, a prediction market had been in the news, often not for a great reason.
Yeah, I mean, this has been one of the tech stories of the year is just the absolute meteoric rise of prediction markets in the popular imagination. I've been walking around New York for the past day and just like ads for these prediction markets are everywhere you look. It is like taking over culture in a way that I'm not sure I would have predicted. Yeah.
What insights did Joanna gain about AI's impact on relationships?
Yes. And one way that prediction markets keep entering the news, Kevin, is it seems like every other day I am reading a story about a massive insider trading scandal that has unfolded on one of the platforms.
Yes.
So you may have seen about two weeks ago, we learned about an army sergeant who was allegedly involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who made more than $400,000 placing bets on markets related to Maduro being out of power by the end of January. Oh, boy. Yeah, not great. And he is not a total outlier. A group called the Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed more than 400,000 prediction markets, settled on polymarket over the last five years, and they found that long-shot bets related to military or defense had an average win rate of about 52%.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are prediction markets and why are they controversial?
0:00–0:59
2
Is Congress ready to regulate prediction markets?
0:59–1:35
3
How did Joanna Stern spend a year using AI in her life?
1:35–2:12
4
What challenges did Joanna face while using AI for personal tasks?
2:12–3:22
5
What insights did Joanna gain about AI's impact on relationships?
3:22–4:40
6
What is Attention School and what does it aim to achieve?
4:40–5:55
7
How does Attention School redefine our relationship with technology?
5:55–7:20
8
What are the outcomes of Rachel's experience at Attention School?
7:20–1:13:29
Speakers
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Meta Shifts the Blame + Do Data Center Bans Work? + The Final HatGPT
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