ep 382 | The week ahead - Oil prices surge ahead of the Fed meeting
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
On Point with Craig's Investment Partners. The information provided here is general in nature and it's not financial advice. It doesn't take into account your situation, objectives, goals or risk tolerance. All investments are subject to risks and none are guaranteed. Before you make any investment decisions, we recommend you contact an investment advisor. For more information about our services or to view the Craig's Investment Partners Financial Advice Provider Disclosure Statement, please visit our website which is craigsip.com. welcome to on point i'm mark lister investment director at craigs investment partners and i'll be talking about a range of topics including economics portfolio strategy investor education and anything else that's happening out there in financial markets good day team hope everyone is well that's another week down so let's talk about it then let's discuss what we need to watch in the days coming up
Last week, a good week in many ways, but that escalating conflict in the Middle East very much overshadowed some of those strong earnings releases we saw that pushed oil prices back up again and it raised concerns about mounting inflation pressures and that obviously makes people start thinking about monetary policy tightening. So US crude oil rose about 8% last week, finished the week at about $89. That sees it up almost 30% in the month of July. And what are we today? It's Saturday the 25th, so in 25 odd days, oil prices have bounced 30 odd percent. They're not quite as high as they were. a couple of months back during the peak of the crisis, during the conflict, but they certainly have rocketed back up again.
And Brent Crude pushed through $100 a barrel. That's not as high as it's got to. It was at, I think, $112-odd sometime during April or maybe May. certainly much higher than where we have been so that has just taken the shine of confidence and market sentiment also some more news on the tariff front as well believe it or not we're still talking about tariffs and new tariffs so that as well was something which weighed on investor confidence So looking at some of the key indices, the S&P 500 in the United States was down 0.6%. Many other markets actually held up better than that. The UK and Europe were up 1.3% and 0.3%. Japan had a good week. Japanese shares up 2.3%. The yen's still under a lot of pressure, but the share market doing quite well.
and emerging market equities added 0.5%. The Aussie market was up 0.3% and the local market was up 0.6%. So when we look at the monthly returns, it's different again, a bit of a mixed bag. The New Zealand market up about 1%, Aussie flat, the US down 1%, UK up 2%. europe down slightly japan up slightly emerging market shares are down about five and a half percent this month and that is because of south korea and the weakness you're seeing in some of those chip stocks like samsung sk hynix after a very very very strong run emerging markets are interesting because it depends which index you look at the misky emerging market index does include south korea in its emerging market sphere. However, there are a few others.
I think the FTSE emerging market indices don't have South Korea as part of it because they have South Korea as a developed market rather than an emerging market. So all depends which one you're looking at and whether you get a part of the world like South Korea that's had a cracking run and then has come right off the boil and fallen back down again, that can push your numbers around. But anyway, the local market, the other point worth making here is that we actually did hit a fresh high on Thursday. The NZX 50, that is, hit a fresh high, which is fantastic. But we need to remember that our index here in New Zealand is a gross index, which means it includes dividend payments in contrast to the likes of the S&P 500, the ASX 200, the FTSE 100 in the UK.
All of those are capital indexes, so they are only share price moves. Ours is share price moves and dividends. And when you're doing apples with apples comparison,
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–5:38
2
How did last week’s Middle East conflict and tariffs push oil prices and investor sentiment higher?
5:38–6:57
3
How large have oil price moves been recently and what does that mean for markets?
6:57–11:38
4
Which global equity markets outperformed or underperformed last week and why?
11:38–16:10
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from On Point
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