ep 386 | Spotlight on the US equity market
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
On Point with Craig's Investment Partners.
The information provided here is general in nature and it's not financial advice. It doesn't take into account your situation, objectives, goals or risk tolerance. All investments are subject to risk and none are guaranteed. Before you make any investment decisions, we recommend you contact an investment advisor. For more information about our services or to view the Craig's Investment Partners financial advice provider disclosure statement, please visit our website, which is craigsip.com. welcome to on point i'm mark lister investment director at craigs investment partners and i'll be talking about a range of topics including economics portfolio strategy investor education and anything else that's happening out there in financial markets hey team hope you're all well the u.s share market is really in focus at the moment and to be fair that's always the case because it's the biggest and most relevant in the world but
At the moment, you've got a lot of issues that we're all watching. You've got that macro backdrop. You've got oil prices. You've got monetary policy with the new Federal Reserve chair. You've got the midterm elections that are coming up. You've got the earnings season that's right on top of us at the moment, and all of that volatility across tech stocks, chip stocks, and that sort of thing. I don't have all the answers to those questions, but I did reach out to Fiona Harris of JP Morgan Asset Management. She has been with JP Morgan for many years, decades actually. She's a managing director and she's an investment specialist that focuses primarily on US equities. So it was a fantastic opportunity to pick her brain ahead of a New Zealand trip that she's making later this month.
Here is the audio from our conversation. Hopefully it will answer some of those questions for you. Enjoy. Thanks very much for joining us again. Fantastic to sort of have you in these sessions and be able to use your expertise. JP Morgan Asset Management, obviously a great partner for Craig's and we use you a lot in many capacities. So welcome and let's talk about the US market. I guess I wanted to start with looking at this year, looking at last year. Last year it was all about tariffs and this year the headlines have moved on from tariffs, thankfully. and have been dominated by the war, the conflict, oil prices, all of that. How are you seeing that Iran-US conflict in terms of the outlook? What's your latest thinking?
What are the main macro forces currently shaping the US equity market?
I know it's very much a moving feast, but how are you thinking about that geopolitical backdrop right at the moment?
Thanks, Mark. It's so great to be here, and thanks for the great question. I wouldn't put a tariff set past you yet. I feel they're a little bit like a boomerang. They're going to come back a little bit over time. But you're absolutely right. You know, if you took a step back and you said, hey, you know, we're going to have a conflict. We're going to have a shortage of oil. We don't have a timeline for when it might end, but it's going to be problematic. We would have probably said, hey, oil goes to $150 a barrel, right? We're not there. Okay, so that's one good point. But the bad point being, well, Brent started the year at about $60 a barrel. And today we're closer to the $100 a barrel. So there is an impact.
There's an impact for consumers. There's an impact for industries. Because higher prices, it impacts your bottom line at the end of the day. And, you know, again, I think the other issue with this conflict is we've got to pause. We have talks. We have escalation. So... We started the year with more oil and expectations that prices would be lowered. There was an abundance of supply. Now it's gotten very, very tight. Does this sound like the memory names? And so as supply tightened in, you saw prices come up. So why is this a concern? Well, inflation. It hasn't gone away. No matter where you are in the world, as we said, higher prices impact the bottom line, but they impact inflation. And so we can think about inflation expectations.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:36
2
What are the main macro forces currently shaping the US equity market?
2:36–8:01
3
How does the Iran‑US conflict affect oil prices and inflation outlook?
8:01–13:32
4
Why are earnings growth and valuation trends driving the S&P higher this year?
13:32–21:41
5
Which sectors are showing the strongest earnings momentum beyond AI?
21:41–25:11
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from On Point
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