Episode 2696 CWSA 12/21/24
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What is the dopamine of the day?
of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine of the day. The thing that makes everything better today with a little oxytocin mixed in. It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now. If you didn't know it, this show works best if you get a warm beverage and a blanket on your lap, your legs are up, and you've got one or two cats on your lap. That's the way to watch this show. Yes, it is. By the way, after this show, after we're done with this live stream, Owen Gregorian will be hosting a Spaces on X podcast. where you can talk about what happened on the show, or I suppose anything you feel like. So it'll be a little add-on to the show.
Owen will be doing that on Spaces as soon as we're done. I think he's only going to be doing this on Saturdays. Now, one of the things I like is when I say something that disagrees with all the experts, and then I wait for people to agree with me, and I look around and go, pretty good point, wasn't it? and nobody agrees with me. And then I think, maybe it's the way I said it. So I'll wait, and then I'll say it again, and I'll think I'm making a good point, in this case about AI. And I'll look around again, and I'm like, anybody agree with me? And I can find nobody who agrees. But if I wait long enough, sometimes somebody smart will agree with me. And in this case, Naval Ravikant, was saying on a podcast with Arjun Himani. I hope I'm saying that right.
I did a podcast with him. And Naval was talking about AGI. Now, AGI is the AI version that comes after the current stuff. And it's where we get to something called artificial general intelligence, meaning that the AI is not just a clever kind of tool, but that it reasons just like people. Now, we're not really close to having an AI that reasons just like people, but the smart people say we might be just a few years away. But here's what Naval said that agrees with something I've said. He said, quote, there's no intelligence that can fundamentally understand something humans can't understand. So he said that's what AGI people get wrong. Let me say it again.
How is AGI different from current AI?
There's no intelligence, including an intelligence that people imagine we're going to invent next. There is no intelligence that can fundamentally understand something humans can't. So the way I said it, and this is the first time I've seen anybody smart agree with me on this point. If we were to develop an AI that was legitimately smarter than people in just general reasoning, I'm not talking about knowing facts or doing math because we accept that they're already better than us. But in general reasoning, if it reasoned better than us, we would not accept it because we prefer our illusions. And if it tried to take them away because it reasoned better than us, it would say stuff like, oh, you know your religion? Almost no chance that's true.
Not your religion, but let's say somebody else's. You have the right one. You have the correct one. But suppose somebody else with the wrong religion opens their AGI and it says, your religion is totally made up and here's the reasons. It would be very disruptive. And then the next thing you say is, oh, we better get rid of this AI. It got the religion question wrong. So if AGI gets to the point where it disagrees with the smartest human on that topic, we will still believe the smartest human was right, even if the AGI was actually right. In other words, since we can't judge what is smarter than us, we will reject it, just like we do when other smart people disagree with us. So I think there might be no path So there are two things involved.
One is, could you make it smarter than people? That's the first challenge. And maybe you can't. Maybe it can never be smarter than people. But if you could, we wouldn't allow you to implement it. So there's probably no path to it. At least logically there's not. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But if it does work, we'll say it doesn't work. Those are the only two paths. Anyway. We'll see.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the dopamine of the day?
0:00–2:50
2
How is AGI different from current AI?
2:50–5:17
3
What are the implications of AI reasoning better than humans?
5:17–6:55
4
What recent medical claim has been made about a cancer cure?
6:55–20:16
5
Why are NBA ratings declining?
20:16–30:56
6
What is the significance of Biden's student loan forgiveness?
30:56–36:23
7
What happened in the German Christmas market incident?
36:23–1:06:56
8
How does social media influence political discourse?
1:06:56–1:22:39
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from Real Coffee with Scott Adams
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