Show notes
In episode 402 of The Brainy Business podcast, Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and author of the book Quit, joins host Melina Palmer to discuss the psychology of quitting and decision-making under uncertainty. Annie's transition from an academic to a professional poker player and her subsequent work in decision science provide a unique and valuable perspective on the topic. Throughout the conversation, Annie challenges traditional perceptions of quitting and emphasizes its crucial role in winning and strategic decision-making. She introduces concepts such as pre-mortems and the mental model of monkeys and pedestals, offering practical tools and frameworks for making better decisions. The episode provides valuable insights into reframing the mindset around quitting, the importance of understanding when to quit, and the potential impact of decision education in various domains. Annie Duke's diverse background and expertise in decision science make this episode a must-listen for entrepreneurs and business owners seeking to enhance their strategic decision-making skills and achieve increased business success. In this episode: Discover the strategic benefits of quitting in business to unlock new opportunities and growth potential. Implement behavioral economics in your business to enhance decision-making and drive better outcomes. Learn how to strategically identify when to quit for long-term business success and resilience. Explore the Monkeys and Pedestals decision-making model for insightful strategies to improve decision-making processes. Overcome analysis paralysis and make decisive, effective decisions to propel your business forward. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction The episode introduces Annie Duke and her book Quit about the psychology of quitting and decision-making. 00:01:15 - The Importance of Quitting Annie explains how winners often say no and quit things to succeed, emphasizing the need to know what to stick with, what to quit, and when. 00:04:47 - Annie's Background and Transition Annie shares her journey from academia to professional poker and behavioral psychology, highlighting how her poker career led her back to her cognitive science roots. 00:08:40 - The Power of Diverse Perspectives Annie discusses the value of diverse experiences in decision-making and problem-solving, emphasizing the importance of different frames of thinking to bring unique insights to the table. 00:12:05 - The Pre Mortem Skepticism Annie shares her research on pre-mortems, expressing skepticism about their effectiveness as standalone decision tools and the need to combine them with other strategies for improving decision quality. 00:14:18 - Normalize Dissent and Prospective Hindsight Daniel Kahneman's advice on normalizing dissent allows for consideration of both good and bad outcomes. Prospective hindsight can generate 30% more reasons for failure or success. 00:15:19 - Pre Parade and Pre Mortem Tools Pre-mortem exercises influence confidence and introduce self-serving bias. The pre parade increases overconfidence, while the pre-mortem leads to attributing bad outcomes to external factors. 00:18:43 - Challenges in Behavior Change Difficulty in getting people to change plans despite pre-mortem insights. Anecdotal observations and studies show resistance to plan modifications across various domains, raising questions about the effectiveness of the exercise. 00:19:55 - Group Dynamics and Real-world Impact Need for group testing of pre-mortems to understand the impact of group dynamics. Potential for behavior change in high-stakes environments like work projects. Studies underway to explore these aspects in real-world scenarios. 00:22:23 - Thinking in Bets and How to Decide Annie's books Thinking in Bets and How to Decide explore decision-making under uncertainty. They provide practical tools and insights, such as pre-mortems, to improve decision accuracy and overcome cognitive biases. 00:27:11 - The Impact of Hindsight Bias Annie discusses how most of the time, we learn new things after the fact and act like we should have known them beforehand. She highlights the importance of tracking knowledge and listening to independent opinions to avoid biases. 00:27:52 - Overcoming Analysis Paralysis Annie explains the process of decision-making and the importance of making implicit factors explicit. She emphasizes the need to consider the consequences of decisions and the ability to change your mind later. 00:32:38 - The Value of Quitting Annie challenges the negative perception of quitting and emphasizes its value in decision-making. She shares insights from experts and individuals, highlighting the benefits of exercising the option to quit. 00:35:32 - Conversations with Experts Annie shares her conversations with influential figures like Michael Mobison, Daniel Kahneman, Richard Thaler, and others. These discussions inspired her to explore the topic of quitting further, leading to the creation of her book. 00:40:52 - The California Bullet Train Annie uses the example of the California bullet train project to illustrate the challenges of large-scale decision-making and the importance of considering all factors before committing to a course of action. 00:41:35 - The California Bullet Train Project Annie discusses the challenges faced by the California bullet train project due to the Diablo and Tehachapi mountain ranges. The budget explosion and the decision to continue building without addressing the engineering challenges are highlighted. 00:43:02 - Re-evaluation of the Project Gavin Newsom's decision to reevaluate the California bullet train project in 2018 is discussed. The project's failure to address the engineering problems of the mountain ranges and the budget increase to $110 billion are emphasized. 00:44:44 - Monkeys and Pedestals Framework Annie introduces the "Monkeys and Pedestals" framework, which emphasizes tackling the hard problems first before building pedestals. The concept of pre-mortems and setting kill criteria to identify and address project challenges is explained. 00:50:55 - Behavior Change and Future Planning The importance of behavior change in addressing project challenges and the application of pre-mortems and setting kill criteria to identify crucial information are discussed. The significance of identifying the "monkeys" before building "pedestals" is emphasized. 00:54:06 - Tackling Low Hanging Fruit The reverse approach to tackling projects, focusing on solving hard problems before addressing easy tasks, is highlighted. The importance of prioritizing crucial information and being smarter about project approach is emphasized. 00:54:54 - The Importance of Solving Hard Problems First Annie emphasizes the need to focus on solving the hard problem first before building pedestals. She highlights the concept of working on the greatest bike shed instead of the nuclear plant, as well as the law of triviality. 00:55:37 - The Pitfalls of Wasteful Thinking Annie discusses how people often fail to think ahead and waste time and resources on backward thinking. She emphasizes the importance of evaluating the worth of the next minute and dollar, shifting mindset from past to future. 00:56:24 - The Key to Success and Grit Annie explains that winners quit a lot, but they do it to focus on the right things. Grit is important, but only when applied to the right endeavors. She also touches on forced quitting and exploring new opportunities. 00:57:25 - The Importance of Flexibility and Agility Annie highlights the significance of being flexible and open to switching course if the current endeavor is not worthwhile. Winners sample a lot of things and settle on the right course of action, even if they don't know what they are switching to. 01:00:28 _ Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show. I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: [email protected] The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Annie: ANNIE'S WEBSITE ANNIE ON TWITTER ANNIE ON LINKEDIN Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books. Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Quit, by Annie Duke Subtract, by Leidy Klotz How to Decide, by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke Playing with Reality, by Kelly Clancy Top Recommended Next Episode: Game Theory (ep 228) Already Heard That One? Try These: Matthew Confer Interview (ep 158) Counterfactual Thinking (ep 286) Framing (ep 296) Loss Aversion (ep 316) Status Quo Bias (ep 376) Other Important Links: Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter A Slight Change of Plans Podcast with Maya Shankar Annie's Newsletter