Trump’s Fantasy State of the Union
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What are President Trump's current approval ratings on key issues?
I'm opening up cross play. I've been playing against Dan, my colleague at the New York Times. Kat's played another move. She played stoop for 36 points. I've got a Z, which is 10 points. I'm guessing tanga is not a word. Let's see. Tanga is a word. Oh. Dan played his last turn. Let's see who won. It's so close, but I did win. New York Times game subscribers get full access to Crossplay, our first two-player word game. Subscribe now for a special offer on all of our games.
So imagine you're Donald Trump, or maybe you're one of Donald Trump's political advisors, or his kids, one of the ones who doesn't want to lose the midterms and start getting your crypto and AI trades investigated by congressional Democrats. So you're there, and you're planning out last night's State of the Union, and you're What would you do? Well, you'd probably start with a problem that you need to solve. The issues that got you elected in 2024 have turned into huge vulnerabilities in 2026. Go back a year. Go back to February 2025. Immigration is your strongest issue. All those weenie liberals looking at your approval rating can see it right there on Nate Silver's poll tracker. Your net approval on immigration is around 10%.
That means 10% more of the country approves of the job you're doing then disapproves of it. Suck it, liberals. Fast forward a year, your net approval on immigration is negative 13%. Immigration has gone from your strongest issue to a reason the country dislikes you. Or take the economy. In early February of 2025, you were doing pretty well, plus 7%. But then came the tariffs. Now your net approval on the economy is negative 17%, negative 17%. And it gets worse. On trade, it is negative 23%. On inflation, negative 30%, negative 30%. So now it is state of the union time. You have this rare opportunity to address the entire political system, the entire country. So what do you do? Do you tell the American people you're working on it?
That you know there's disruption and tumult. It's just going to take some time for all these policies to pay off. Do you tell the American people you hear them and you're going to change course, you've got a new plan? Or do you tell the American people that they're wrong? That everything is actually going great? That they should believe you, not their lying eyes and empty wallets and the videos of chaos in their streets. Last night at the State of the Union, Donald Trump decisively chose door number three. At over an hour and 45 minutes, this was the longest State of the Union recorded history. He had a lot of time to make his case. And what Trump said again and again was that the American people don't know what they're talking about.
How does Trump describe the state of the economy in his address?
Today, our border is secure. Our spirit is restored. Inflation is plummeting. Incomes are rising fast. The roaring economy is roaring like never before. And our enemies are scared. Our military and police are stacked. And America is respected again, perhaps like never before.
I'm not going to go through a fact check of the president here. Donald Trump is not a truthful man. People did not vote for him believing him a truthful man. They voted for him believing he could solve their problems. But what I have increasingly wondered over the past year isn't whether Trump is being truthful with us. but whether he's being truthful with himself or whether the people around him are. What does Trump know? What doesn't he know? Because in his second term, he is surrounded by yes-men and sycophants. He presides over these cabinet meetings. You can watch them, where one agency head after another tells him how great he is doing. how unbelievably well his presidency is going. He doesn't read lengthy briefing books, we know that.
He doesn't preside over a normal policy process. He communicates on a social media site he owns. that's filled with people who like him. He throws himself parades. He's adopted the cliched authoritarian habit of forcing people to sit through these record-length speeches. And yes, it is an amazing show of dominance to make Speaker Mike Johnson nod and clap and grin for that long.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are President Trump's current approval ratings on key issues?
0:01–3:23
2
How does Trump describe the state of the economy in his address?
3:23–6:55
3
What vulnerabilities does Trump face heading into the midterms?
6:55–9:50
4
How does Trump's perception of reality differ from public sentiment?
9:50–14:20
5
What key themes emerged from Trump's State of the Union address?
14:20–18:17
6
How does Trump communicate with his supporters during crises?
18:17–22:58
7
What implications does Trump's rhetoric have for the Republican Party?
22:58–26:25
8
How might Trump's actions affect the upcoming elections?
26:25–48:06